Donald Trump to hold rally near California-Nevada border with a Senate seat on the line

Former President Donald Trump is visiting the California-Nevada border to throw his clout behind a red-hot Senate race that could determine Republicans’ national political future.

Trump on Saturday will host a rally near Lake Tahoe in Minden, Nevada, to support Republican Senate candidate Adam Laxalt and Joe Lombardo, who’s running for governor.

Laxalt, a former state attorney general, is in the midst of a very competitive race against incumbent Democrat Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto. A recent CNN poll shows 48% of likely voters favor Laxalt, while 46% favor Cortez Masto.

Nevada is well-known battleground territory. In 2020, President Joe Biden narrowly won the state with about 50% of the vote, while Trump wasn’t far behind with nearly 48%.

The Nevada race is among the competitive Senate campaigns in the country, along with midterm contests in Arizona, Georgia and Pennsylvania.

Since 2020, Democrats have had 50 seats, giving them control of the Senate by the slimmest of margins. Although Republicans also have 50 Senate seats, Vice President Kamala Harris gives Democrats the edge by acting as the tie-breaker during close votes.

Cortez Masto has previously benefited from Democratic electoral power generated by former Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, who died in December. She won her 2016 election with a solid 2.5 percentage points.

Republicans see opportunity in Nevada

Following Reid’s death, Republicans see a chance to make gains in the state, said Jacob Rubashkin of Inside Elections, which provides nonpartisan campaign analysis. That’s where Trump’s rally comes in.

“There’s a real opportunity for Republicans to try and close that sort of enthusiasm advantage and organizational advantage,” Rubashkin said. “So bringing people together in a rally setting and getting their information — all of those kind of factors that go into these big events could accrue to Laxalt’s benefit.”

Rubashkin said Nevada is “politically segmented” by its geography. Democrats typically win Clark County, which contains Las Vegas. Washoe County, where Reno is located, tends to be more of a toss-up.

Minden is in Douglas County, just south of Reno. That makes it a good place for Trump to rally critical voters from Washoe County.

“In the politics of the state writ large, it’s unsurprising that Republicans and Trump would concentrate their efforts in that area,” Rubashkin said. “For the statewide candidates, it would be difficult for Adam Laxalt to win without carrying this county, without carrying Washoe.”

Republican Senate candidates are currently struggling in states like Pennsylvania and Georgia, but Nevada still seems flippable, Rubashkin said.

“So you’ve got to win seats, right? When you’re in the minority, you’ve got to find somewhere to win,” he said. “And at the moment, while a lot of these states are looking tough, and increasingly tough, Nevada stands out as one where the path to victory is very apparent. And it’ll be it’ll be a real race, but it’s not facing the same kind of roadblocks that Republican nominees in some of those other states are facing.”