Feared post-Christmas coronavirus surge appears to begin in Los Angeles County as cases spike
The dreaded post-Christmas spike in coronavirus cases appears to be materializing in Los Angeles County, with a new rise in cases as hospitals are already in crisis from the Thanksgiving surge.
Los Angeles County posted its third highest single-day total for coronavirus cases on New Year's Day, reporting 19,063 cases. That means that over the last seven days, there has been an average of more than 16,000 new coronavirus cases a day reported in the county — about 12 times bigger than the comparable figure from Nov. 1 and the highest figure ever recorded.
The county had seen particularly aggressive growth in daily coronavirus cases in mid-December, but then saw new cases flatten over the last week and a half, generally adding on average 13,000 to 14,800 new cases a day.
The tally reported Friday pushed the average number of new daily coronavirus cases over the last week to 16,077 — precisely around the same time that epidemiologists warned that people infected around the Christmas holiday would begin to become infectious.
The county also posted a high death toll Friday — 193 deaths, the fourth-highest single day death toll. New Year's Day followed three consecutive days of record deaths reported in one day — 242 on Tuesday, 262 on Wednesday and 291 on Thursday. Combined, 988 deaths were reported in this four-day period.
Before Friday's numbers for L.A. County were released, Dr. Robert Kim-Farley, medical epidemiologist and infectious diseases expert with the UCLA Fielding School of Public Health, said he expected that the pandemic in L.A. County would worsen soon because of the amount of travel observed over Christmas and New Year's.
Kim-Farley said L.A. County was in the midst of a "viral tsunami," but added that "we should not be frozen in despair that there is nothing we can do."
"Now is the time to get to 'higher ground' — in this case, higher ground means staying at home and not mixing with others outside of your household as much as possible and not being outside where the viral tsunami could reach us," Kim-Farley said.
Despite the grim outlook for the weeks ahead, Kim-Farley said, "there's no question in my mind that had we not had the stay-at-home order, the situation would be far more dire than it is now. However, I think the magnitude of the numbers show that in the face of the stay at home order, many people are choosing to ignore it, and with no strong enforcement, these mixing of households and parties continue to occur."
The death toll has already spiked in December, largely a result of people en masse, fatigued by the pandemic, ignoring pleas by officials to stay home for Thanksgiving and deciding to gather with friends and family over that holiday. There were 2,703 COVID-19 deaths reported in L.A. County in December, by far the deadliest month of the pandemic and more than four times worse than November's death toll of 585.
Hospitals across L.A. County are being overwhelmed by the pandemic, with most forced to turn away ambulances for much of the day as medical institutions buckle under the weight of unprecedented demand for critical hospital care. Hospital morgues and private funeral homes are so full of corpses that the National Guard has been asked to help with efforts to store the bodies temporarily at the county medical-examiner-coroner's office.
As one of the nation's largest metropolises with some of the nation's densest neighborhoods, L.A. County is considered to be particularly vulnerable in a pandemic. The county, home to more than 10 million people, suffers in a number of neighborhoods from high rates of poverty and costly housing that lead to overcrowded homes. Southern California also has huge numbers of essential workers who must leave their homes to work, many employed in food factories and warehouses, where the virus can also spread easily.
Some patients are waiting up to nine hours in waiting rooms with low blood pressure and low oxygen levels. A number of facilities are reporting running dangerously low on supplies of oxygen. Some patients transported by ambulances are waiting as long as eight hours to be dropped off at emergency rooms. There's fear that people suffering from strokes, heart attacks and seizures aren't getting the swift attention they need.
With so many COVID-19 patients suffering from inflamed lungs that make them gasp for air, some aging hospital systems have been unable to keep up with the demand for high-flow rates of oxygen needed to be piped into their lungs. The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers is planning to send crews to the region to update oxygen-delivery systems at a handful of hospitals.
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