Feds project 11% drop in California almond harvest. Why that’s not entirely a bad thing

The state’s upcoming almond harvest will be down 11% from 2021, a federal agency projected Friday.

The report has a bright side: The lower volume could help growers recover from two straight years of weak prices resulting from the bumper crop of 2020.

California grows about 80% of the world’s almonds, so the annual surveys by the National Agricultural Statistics Service get plenty of attention.

The latest one estimated 2.6 billion pounds during the August-to-November harvest, compared with 2.9 billion last year and 3.1 billion in 2020. The now three-year drought helped trim the output in areas with unstable water supplies, as did frost in some places in late February.

The Almond Board of California, based in Modesto, is chaired by Brian Wahlbrink, a grower east of Denair.

“Growers have been working hard in the face of challenging circumstances, and it demonstrates their dedication to improving stewardship practices and meeting the demands of consumers,” he said in a news release.

Industry employs thousands

Wahlbrink is chief financial officer at Sperry Farms, along Monte Vista Avenue. It is part of an industry that employs several thousand people at farms and processing plants in the Central Valley. The nuts go to makers of cereal, baked goods, candy and other foods around the world.

NASS based its report on a sampling of orchards, including total nuts per tree and the average weight of the edible kernel.

The report also shows average prices received by growers over the years. They typically need at least $2 per pound to cover their production costs. The average was $1.76 last year and $1.71 in 2020, following nine years in the profitable range.

The 2022 prices will not be known until processors sell the new crop in the months following the harvest.

Logjam eases at ports

Almond Board President and CEO Richard Waycott noted improvement on another issue, the recent shortage of shipping containers and handling equipment at California ports.

“Despite the shipping and logistical logjams, recent shipment numbers have set monthly records, which demonstrates the demand for California almonds continues to increase in the U.S. and around the world,” he said.

Growers had about $5.02 billion in gross income last year, NASS reported. About a third of the crop is in Stanislaus, Merced and San Joaquin counties.

This year’s survey found an average of 4,082 almonds per tree, compared with 3,966 in 2021. The average kernel weighed 1.47 grams, up from 1.46.

The kernel is surrounded by a shell and a hull, which are sold for livestock feed and other uses.