Russian River outlook worsens, Tuesday crest expected to be 7 feet above flood stage

Continued rain this weekend and Monday on an already saturated landscape is now expected to push the lower Russian River above 39 feet — or 7 feet above flood stage — by Tuesday evening.|

Sonoma County is getting a break from the wet weather Friday, but more storms are coming our way.

The next storm is expected to hit Sonoma County on Friday evening, bringing up to 3¼ inches of rain through Sunday, according to the National Weather Service. Higher elevations could get up to 6½ inches of rain.

Have a storm-related news tip? Contact Reporter Colin Atagi (@colin_atagi) at colin.atagi@pressdemocrat.com.

Here is the latest on what’s happening ahead of the storm:

8:20 p.m.: PG&E says electricity should be restored by end of Saturday

Across the Bay Area, 55,000 customers are still without electricity since Wednesday’s heavy storm, according to Pacific Gas and Electric Co.

All outages are expected to be restored by the end of Saturday, PG&E has indicated.

More than 550,000 other customers across the state lost power during the storm but have since had power restored.

According to the utility, more than 3,800 crew members are working on restoring electricity.

Damage is still being assessed in the hardest-hit areas.

2 p.m.: National Weather Service issues wind advisory for Saturday into Sunday

The National Weather Service issued a wind advisory for the North Bay from 4 a.m. Saturday through 1 p.m. Sunday. Valley locations are expected to see winds of 15 to 25 mph with gusts from 40 to 50 mph. Mountains are expected to see 20 to 30 mph winds with gusts from 45 to 60 mph.

Noon: Local rescue crews readying for projected flooding

Sonoma County Fire District's swift water rescue crew of Stephan Mercieca, Jason Clopton and Matthew Colgrove train on the Russian River, Friday, Jan. 6, 2023, taking advantage of the flow after the river crested in Guerneville earlier in the morning. (Kent Porter/The Press Democrat)
Sonoma County Fire District's swift water rescue crew of Stephan Mercieca, Jason Clopton and Matthew Colgrove train on the Russian River, Friday, Jan. 6, 2023, taking advantage of the flow after the river crested in Guerneville earlier in the morning. (Kent Porter/The Press Democrat)

A rescue crew with the Sonoma County Fire District took advantage of Friday’s high flow of the Russian River to train for water rescues.

10:40 a.m.: Russian River projected to flood Monday, crest 7 feet above flood stage

Continued rain this weekend and Monday on an already saturated landscape is now expected to push the lower Russian River above 39 feet — or seven feet above flood stage — on Tuesday evening.

That’s the latest in a series of fluctuating projections from the California Nevada River Forecast Center run by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, which has been trying to keep up with ebbs and flows in rainfall and runoff in the 1,500-square-mile watershed.

It appeared Thursday the flood forecast had eased somewhat. It was just a brief reprieve.

Several more inches of rain expected across the North Bay and coastal mountains Saturday into Sunday, and an even stronger storm predicted Sunday night through Tuesday, will continue to dump water into the river, raising it to flood stage of 32 feet by Monday afternoon.

It’s predicted to continue swelling until about 7 p.m. Tuesday, cresting at 39.1 feet before beginning to slowly decline around midnight, according to the river forecast at 8:37 a.m. Friday.

Though not quite considered “major” flooding — that’s reserved for 40 feet and above — 39 feet means the river will likely spill into many riverside resorts; close low-lying sections of highways and roads, including Highway 116, Bohemian Highway and River Road; and raise Fife Creek in central Guerneville, flooding some local businesses.

Thousands of people between Healdsburg and Jenner in low-lying areas along the mainstem river and its tributaries have been under an evacuation warning since Wednesday evening. The warning — but not an order — directed residents to gather essentials and be prepared to evacuate when necessary.

Check to see if your address is in the evacuation warning zone at bit.ly/3X5Kd3A.

10 a.m.: More than 9,000 customers still without power in Sonoma County

According to Pacific Gas and Electric Co., 9,981 customers are still without power around the county. That number is down from the more than 11,000 PG&E customers without power Thursday.

In a tweet late Thursday, PG&E said its workers were busy through the night restoring power safely and as quickly as possible.

8:55 a.m.: National Weather Service issues high surf advisory

The National Weather Service issued a high surf advisory through 9 p.m. Friday for the entire Bay Area coastline, including the Sonoma Coast, down to Big Sur in Monterey County. The weather service warns of “very large” breaking waves of 15 to 25 feet and dangerous swimming and surfing conditions.

7:50 a.m.: GoFundMe for boy killed by toppled tree in Occidental exceeds goal in one day

A photo of Aeon Tocchini, Thursday, Jan. 5, 2023, who was killed by a falling tree in the home he was living in with parents Dan and Aisha Tocchini, Wednesday night during the height of the storm in Occidental.  (Kent Porter/The Press Democrat)
A photo of Aeon Tocchini, Thursday, Jan. 5, 2023, who was killed by a falling tree in the home he was living in with parents Dan and Aisha Tocchini, Wednesday night during the height of the storm in Occidental. (Kent Porter/The Press Democrat)

A GoFundMe set up for Aeon Tocchini, the toddler who died when a tree toppled on his family’s Occidental home during Wednesday’s storm, has raised more than $144,000 in one day. Its goal was $100,000.

5:46 a.m.: National Weather Service issues flood watch

The National Weather Service issued a flood watch for the entire Bay Area, including Sonoma County, and much of Central California, from Saturday through Tuesday. Widespread flooding, landslides and impassable roads are possible.

12:18 a.m.: Rohnert Park Expressway now open

Rohnert Park Expressway was closed between Rancho Verde Circle and Stony Point Road due to flooding, Thursday, Jan. 5, 2023. (John Burgess/The Press Democrat)
Rohnert Park Expressway was closed between Rancho Verde Circle and Stony Point Road due to flooding, Thursday, Jan. 5, 2023. (John Burgess/The Press Democrat)

The Rohnert Park Department of Public Safety announced early Friday that Rohnert Park Expressway, which had been closed closed in both directions due to flooding between Rancho Verde Circle and Stony Point Road, is now open.

Trione-Annadel State Park extending closure through weekend

Trione-Annadel State Park in Santa Rosa after this week’s storms. (Friends of Trione-Annadel State Park/Facebook)
Trione-Annadel State Park in Santa Rosa after this week’s storms. (Friends of Trione-Annadel State Park/Facebook)

The Santa Rosa state park will be closed through the weekend, according to a Thursday Facebook post from Friends of Trione-Annadel State Park. “Seasonal creeks throughout the Park have swelled significantly past their banks and have made a large number of trails completely impassable.” the post reads. The park hopes to open early next week.

Will your school district be open Friday? Check here

The Sonoma County Office of Education announced closures by districts for Friday due to fallen trees, lack of electricity, flooding or other concerns related to the storm.

According to the office, the following school districts will be closed Friday:

  • Fort Ross Elementary District;
  • Guerneville School District;
  • Harmony Union School District;
  • Horicon School District;
  • Kashia School District;
  • Montgomery Elementary District.

The office adds there are 40 public school districts in Sonoma County and parents should assume classes are proceeding as normal if their districts aren’t listed above.

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