Hitting the road for summer travel season? Here’s what to expect from gas prices

With the weather finally turning in our favor, plenty of North Bay fun-seekers will be hitting the road for the Memorial Day weekend.

AAA predicts 37.1 million travelers will hop in their cars to take advantage of the extra day off. That’s over 2 million more people, or 6% more, than last year.

In fact, forecasts show that travel, including such other modes as flights, has almost rebounded to pre-pandemic levels, and Memorial Day 2023 is expected to be the third-busiest since 2000.

With that in mind, here’s what you can expect from gas prices heading into summer travel season.

At the moment, California gas is hovering at around $4.80 per gallon, compared to just above $3.50 nationally, according to AAA.

Sonoma County is currently averaging higher than most other counties in the state at $4.95 per gallon, but that’s still a lot better than the $6.24 per gallon average county travelers forked over at the same time last year.

Various factors, including a drop in crude oil costs, shifting demand around the world and the resolution of some refinery and pipeline issues, are contributing to the declining pump price.

“Prices remain far below where they were a year ago,” Patrick De Haan, who heads up petroleum analysis for Gas Buddy, which tracks gas prices around the nation, told me Tuesday.

“Collectively across the country, Americans are going to be spending $1.6 billion less on gasoline over the four-day weekend” as compared to Memorial Day 2022, he said.

Though California still has the country’s highest prices, the state experienced the largest year-to-year price decrease with an average drop of $1.30 per gallon since this time in 2022.

California’s eye-popping fuel costs in 2022 put pressure on consumers already struggling under the weight of inflation, soaring utility bills and the aftermath of the pandemic’s peak.

It also drew the attention of state officials.

Higher prices in the country’s most populous state are in part due to California’s higher taxes, environmental fees and cleaner gas formulation requirements. Amid a rapidly changing climate, much of this is by design to transition away from fossil fuels toward a cleaner energy future.

But some experts and industry critics point out that regulations alone aren’t enough to explain the discrepancy in California fuel pricing.

At the same time, the state’s five biggest oil refiners — Chevron, Phillips 66, Marathon, Valero and PBF Energy — who control 96% of the gas in California, reported combined profits of $75.4 billion in 2022, almost three times 2021 profits.

Against that backdrop, on March 28, Gov. Gavin Newsom signed legislation authored by state Sen. Nancy Skinner, D-Berkeley, and co-sponsored by Attorney General Rob Bonta to prevent predatory gas pricing.

The law, which passed through the legislature in just one week, will require oil companies to turn over pricing information to regulators that will be used to determine whether industry players should be penalized for profiteering.

Earlier this year, another transparency measure, SB1322, went into effect that compels companies to report certain oil production and refining data publicly.

Details on refining margins and fees associated with low-carbon fuel standards and cap and trade charges are available at www.energy.ca.gov/sb-1322-data.

Meanwhile, more travelers are likely to take to the road this summer, according to a Gas Buddy survey in May.

This year, 65% of Americans surveyed said they were planning to take at least one road trip over 50 miles this summer, compared to 58% this time last year.

Still 60% of those respondents also said they had not solidified their plans.

“I think that is highlighting that Americans are a little bit anxious over the state of the economy and reserving the right to change their minds,” De Haan said.

Gas prices in the past week or so have trended upward slightly, a shift De Haan attributes to a potential deal on the federal debt limit in sight rather than Memorial Day travel.

“It's not related to the holiday so much as it's related to current economic conditions,” De Haan told me.

All in all, he’s cautiously optimistic that fuel costs may have already peaked, noting that prices tend to max out ahead of the summer rather than during the height of demand in mid- to late-July.

“If Americans start to feel better about the economy, we could see prices going back up, but I'm hopeful that, if there are no unexpected disruptions or major hurricanes, California could stay under the $5 gallon average this summer,” De Haan said.

“I know that's a pretty low bar, but it’s certainly not the $6.50 a gallon that we saw last year.”

If you’re looking to avoid the worst of traffic this weekend, Friday is expected to be the busiest travel day with less congestion on Saturday and Sunday.

If a Friday departure is inevitable, AAA recommends leaving before noon. For that Monday return, try to head back before 10 a.m.

“In Your Corner” is a column that puts watchdog reporting to work for the community. If you have a concern, a tip, or a hunch, you can reach “In Your Corner” Columnist Marisa Endicott at 707-521-5470 or marisa.endicott@pressdemocrat.com. On Twitter @InYourCornerTPD and Facebook @InYourCornerTPD.