Incoming storm will push Sonoma County rainfall total above last winter

The North Bay is in store for several more inches of rain starting Wednesday.

Between 2 1/4 to 3 1/2 inches of rain is forecast for the North Bay’s valleys and up to 6 1/2 inches in the coastal mountains through Sunday, said Matt Mehle, a meteorologist with the weather service’s Monterey office.

Following the last few days of sunshine, which allowed creeks and streams to lower, light widespread rain is likely to begin as early as Wednesday morning.

Initial showers will drop about 1/4 to 1/2 of an inch of rain in Sonoma and Napa counties.

The next round of rainfall, from Friday to Sunday, will resemble last week’s storms but without the hurricane-force winds, Mehle said.

“The weekend storm is going to bring a lot more rainfall,” he said.

The valleys are predicted to get about 2 to 3 inches of rain and coastal mountain ranges could get 4 to 6 inches.

Wind gusts over the weekend will top 30 mph. While these are significantly lower than the previous storm ― during which a wind gust of 95 mph was recorded at Cobb Mountain’s west ridge east of Cloverdale ― meteorologists are still concerned about falling trees, Mehle said.

“The ground itself is still really wet. One or two sunny days is not enough,” he said, referring to the soils drying out enough to keep tree roots held in place.

“I would assume that many of the trees that were going to come down, came down in the last system,” he added. “That being said, the soils are still saturated, so we still have it as a risk.”

As of Monday, rainfall totals at the Charles M. Schulz-Sonoma County Airport are about 1 1/2 inches below the total from Oct. 1, 2022, to Feb. 12, 2023, when multiple back-to-back storms struck the region and caused flooding, hundreds of downed trees and two deaths.

The incoming storm will likely push totals above those totals.

However, Mehle said, residents should not be concerned about a repeat of last winter.

“It’s not always about the seasonal total amount. It’s more about when and how quick the rain comes,” he said.

“Last year we had a period of time where it was just one storm after another. Whereas this year we’re having breaks in between the storm’s cycle, which is good.”

You can reach Staff Writer Madison Smalstig at madison.smalstig@pressdemocrat.com. On X (Twitter) @madi.smals.