Mike McGuire's lopsided win in the race for north Sonoma County supervisor stunned his opponent, Debora Fudge, and was even a surprise to McGuire's campaign.
In the aftermath of the Healdsburg councilman's victory over Fudge, a Windsor councilwoman, by a 62 percent to 38 percent margin, both sides were searching for explanations for the landslide.
"We were shocked, absolutely shocked. I thought it would be close," said Jocelyn Euphrat, Fudge's volunteer coordinator.
"We were all just stunned," said Lois Fisher, an urban planner who worked closely with Fudge on her campaign. "The last time we came so close," she said, referring to Fudge's supervisorial bid four years ago when she lost by only 242 votes to incumbent Paul Kelley.
This time, with Kelley deciding not to seek re-election, McGuire won 11,664 votes to Fudge's 7,136 votes.
The 24 percent winning margin was twice as high as the prediction made by McGuire campaign adviser Jason Liles on the eve of the election.
"It was pretty clear from our work we would win," Liles said Wednesday, adding that the margin may have been higher because there was a smaller voter turnout than he anticipated.
But he said it was "hard work, absolutely hard work on the ground," that made the difference.
"I've never seen a candidate as dedicated to precinct walking as Mike. I'm pretty sure she couldn't have matched it," he said.
McGuire declined to comment Wednesday on the vote spread, other than to say, "It was a great night."
"The campaign is over. I really only have two words: &‘Thank you,'" he said.
McGuire added that he already was setting up meetings with community leaders and turning his attention to the county budget, even though he won't be sworn into office until January.
McGuire said his campaign focused on issues that resonated with voters: job creation, protecting the environment, partnering with schools and dealing with the county's budget deficit.
"The moment we got into the race in July, we did not stop walking and calling local voters," he said. He estimated that that his campaign contacted as many as 90,000 households with visits or phone calls.
Late Tuesday night as McGuire's victory margin became apparent, Fudge said she was "very surprised."
"We're all trying to understand where this came from," she said, explaining that feedback from walking precincts indicated she would do much better and her campaign had a "huge get-out-the-vote" effort.
Asked how the result could be so lopsided, she replied, "we have no clue."
Leading up to the election, political analysts predicted McGuire would win because he had done a more effective job of courting centrist and even conservative voters aligned with Kelley without losing the environmental/progressive factions.
Fisher, Fudge's adviser, also noted that McGuire, who grew up in Healdsburg and worked on his family's Alexander Valley farm, had long-time ties to the community.
"There is that huge part of the district that when we live in Windsor, we tend to forget about it," she said. "They probably could relate to a farmboy and a local who had grown up here."
McGuire gained endorsements from the Sonoma County Farm Bureau and the business-oriented Sonoma County Alliance, as well as labor unions. He also proposed a six-point job plan to help grow local "green" companies.
Fudge, 54, an environmental planner who was endorsed by the Sierra Club, stressed her experience and leadership during 14 years on the Town Council as the city reinvented its downtown and built the Town Green. She also is chair of the Sonoma—Marin Area Rail Transit district which will run the future North Bay commuter train line.
McGuire, 30, was elected to the school board at the age of 19 and was one of the youngest school board presidents in Northern California before serving six years on the Healdsburg City Council.
He enjoyed a big advantage in raising money. The last campaign disclosure statements in late May showed he had collected $256,000, compared to Fudge's $148,000.
Fudge said it was a "huge differential" and knew it would be tough raising more funds during a tough economy.
Euphrat said that McGuire probably had twice as many campaign signs as Fudge and due to his larger cash flow, he was able to send more mailers to target voters.
"I do think Mike initially got that nice financial jump on Debora," Euphrat said. "We played catch-up on that. The ball just kept rolling for him."
UPDATED: Please read and follow our commenting policy: