Sen. Mike McGuire fundraising for California insurance commissioner, offering a hint on what’s next after term limits

Campaign finance filings show state Senate Majority Leader Mike McGuire may be eyeing a run for insurance commissioner in 2026, when term limits require him to leave the statehouse.

McGuire, today the second-highest ranking senator, filed campaign disclosures with the California Secretary of State indicating he has $171,951 on hand so far for a potential run.

He reported raising $248,597 in a period beginning Jan. 1 and running to June 30, and spending $114,358 through a committee titled McGuire for Insurance Commissioner 2026.

But McGuire, and others familiar with his career and trajectory, say that despite the committee name on the paperwork, it’s too early to say if he’ll make run for that particular office, which regulates insurance companies and will not have an incumbent candidate in 2026.

The committee is perhaps best seen as a sign that McGuire, like a crop of other state lawmakers hitting their term limits, needs a place to amass campaign dollars as he rounds out his time in the legislature and considers a next move.

“Everyone has a committee,” said Sonoma State University political science professor David McCuan, “this is a common practice to park money and keep open your options.”

McGuire’s fellow North Bay senator, Bill Dodd, for example, reported holding $1.2 million in a committee for a 2026 campaign at lieutenant governor. Dodd, 67, has not stated whether he will run for office when his current term expires next year, and a campaign spokesperson could not immediately be reached for comment.

Fellow elected officials and political observers meanwhile have wondered what could come next for McGuire, who began his political career by winning a seat on a Healdsburg school board at age 19, and is 44 years old today.

Many of his policy positions, particularly in the wake of catastrophic wildfires that have devastated his district over the last decade, align well with a campaign for insurance commissioner, said Santa Rosa city councilman Chris Rogers, who once worked on McGuire’s staff.

“He has a track record of fighting insurance companies to make sure fire survivors get what they need,” Rogers said. “(McGuire’s) policy portfolio is fairly extensive when it comes to insurance issues.”

For his part, McGuire in a statement shied away from confirming a run for the commissioner while touting his current legislative priorities.

“There’s an eternity between now and the 2026 election cycle and my priority is to work my tail off tackling our toughest challenges here in Northern California and helping to lead the State Senate as Majority Leader,“ McGuire said in a statement to The Press Democrat.

"We’re laser-focused on delivering historic resources for cities and counties to combat the homelessness crisis,“ he said. ”We’ve made our region more wildfire-safe by hiring hundreds of new firefighters across the North Coast. We led the negotiations and delivered one of America’s boldest plans to tackle the climate crisis. And, we continue to be an outspoken leader securing record funding for our kids and public schools — because thriving kids and strong public schools are always my highest priority.“

Senate President Toni Atkins, who appointed McGuire majority leader, has hit term limits herself and is exiting the statehouse at the end of 2024. McGuire’s colleagues could award him the top spot in the chamber, McCuan said, though the fact that McGuire would only be able to hold the post for two years could count against him.

McGuire will exit the Senate as at least five of the eight statewide elected offices will come open without an incumbent. With other influential politicians also reaching term limits in the statehouse, any statewide race he enters will be competitive.

“You’re going to see a crowded field for constitutional offices on the Democrat side of the ticket,” McCuan said.

While McGuire has statehouse clout, the Healdsburg resident will have to weigh races against candidates from the state’s larger population centers, which offer a deeper hometown voting pool as well as more proximity to big political givers.

Ricardo Lara, a Los Angeles Democrat, won his second and final term as insurance commissioner in 2022. Lara defeated former North Bay lawmaker Marc Levine in a contentious primary that year despite corruption allegations that led most major newspapers’ editorial boards to back Levine.

You can reach Staff Writer Andrew Graham at 707-526-8667 or andrew.graham@pressdemocrat.com. On Twitter @AndrewGraham88