Golis: The best of early Christmas gifts: It’s raining!

We woke up in the middle of the night to a sound from the distant past.

What is that?

Funny, if I didn’t know better, I’d think it was raining.

If rainfall seems out of place, maybe it’s because California just suffered the driest three years in its recorded history, and climate scientists fear we haven’t seen the last of it.

Could recent rains mean a return to what we used to call normal weather? We can hope that better - meaning wetter - days lie ahead.

Until then, three years of drought should sweep away the temptation to complacency. Absent more rain, we won’t like what happens next.

State officials last week estimated that 1 in 5 major water agencies in California will face shortages if the drought persists through the winter of 2022-23.

The Water Policy Center, an affiliate of the Public Policy Institute of California, reported on the threat at its annual fall conference. “The elephant in the room is that conditions have changed,” senior fellow Jeffrey Mount told the conference. “We’re no longer talking about some future existential threat ... We have now moved into the era of the hot drought.”

It’s been a “brutal” time for farmers, Thad Bettner of the Glenn-Colusa Irrigation District told the gathering.

Researchers at UC Merced estimate that 752,000 acres of farmland in the Central Valley were taken out of production this year because there was not enough water to go around. The revenue loss to farmers amounted to $1.2 billion, plus another $845 million in losses for food processing businesses that depend on farm products.

“Across the state, water and land managers are being forced to respond in real time to changes that were once hard to imagine,” wrote Ellen Hanak, director of the PPIC Water Policy Center. “The snowpack - that once-reliable annual source of water - is diminishing as temperatures rise. Water withdrawals during multiyear droughts are depleting the state’s reservoirs and groundwater basins.”

In the world’s largest agricultural economy, a drought spells trouble for farm regions - and it means inflated food prices for all of us.

The list of dire consequences stretches on and on. Some small towns in the Central Valley are surviving now on water delivered by tank truck. The Washington Post reported last week that the Colorado River and Lake Powell, major sources of water for much of the Southwest, could be at risk of a “complete doomsday scenario.”

Once upon a time, the golden-blond landscapes of late summer and autumn gave way to the green hills of winter and spring. It was always a lovely change.

Now we wish for a rainy season that amounts to more than the false hopes seeded by the early rains of a year ago. Recall that Santa Rosa recorded the wettest day in its history on October 24, 2021, only to see another rainy season that didn’t live up to its name.

A third of Sonoma County is listed in the “extreme drought” category, Staff Writer Mary Callahan reported last month.

The National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center expects a continuing drought in Southern California, while saying the long-range winter forecast for Northern California is, well, less predictable.

Long-range forecasts can be useful in determining how to operate the region’s reservoirs. And, of course, the weather is more than a topic of casual conversation in a region scarred by wildfires and eager to see its world-class wine industry remain successful.

With the water stored behind Warm Springs Dam, Sonoma County is better off than many parts of California. Residents can be grateful that what was once a close-fought political struggle - should the dam be built or not? - turned out the way it did.

Still, another year of drought could mean local residents would face additional restrictions, including a prohibition against watering that lawn you love. Other parts of California experienced bans on outdoor irrigation last summer.

If you’re thinking about ripping out that front lawn, don’t stop now. It never made sense to waste water (or anything else). Besides, water will only get more expensive as time goes by. Over time, a commitment to conservation will be essential.

Meanwhile, here’s to getting reacquainted with your umbrella, raincoat and rubber boots.

California is on track to become the fourth-largest economy on earth, surpassing Germany in GDP and trailing only the U.S., China and Japan. The state keeps demonstrating that it has the financial and intellectual resources to respond to any situation.

But are Californians prepared to make the sacrifices necessary to manage the state’s limited water resources? That’s a story waiting to be told.

Pete Golis is a columnist for The Press Democrat. Email him at golispd@gmail.com.

You can send letters to the editor to letters@pressdemocrat.com.