Analysis: Why Giants are leaning away from selling at trade deadline

The MLB trade deadline is less than a week away and the San Francisco Giants appear to be leaning toward the buyers’ table despite their precarious place in the standings.

Following their seventh straight loss on Wednesday, the Giants made clear to teams calling about impending free agents and All-Stars Carlos Rodón and Joc Pederson that they would not be available in potential trades, according to ESPN.

The Giants are in striking distance of a postseason berth, but teams have every reason to stay on the line after the club’s worst stretch of the season. If the downward spiral continues in the days before the Aug. 2 trade deadline, San Francisco’s brass may believe the path to the postseason is too difficult and find more value in flipping veteran players for a haul of prospects.

The Giants have a handful of trade chips they can shop at the deadline, some more viable than others.

Now with the power to opt out of his contract after the season, Rodón is perhaps the most valuable trade asset to contenders in need of an elite starting pitcher. If he suddenly became available, Rodón would immediately jump to the top of teams’ wish lists.

Pederson, Brandon Belt, Wilmer Flores and Dominic Leone are on expiring contracts and could also have the Giants fielding intriguing offers at the deadline.

Traces of the dynasty years remain strong in the Giants’ clubhouse despite the front-office regime change. Any Belt trade — on his $18 million qualifying offer — would be more symbolic as it would represent a more decisive transition into the next generation that hasn’t yet come to fruition under Farhan Zaidi.

Of course, after a 107 win season last year, there’s plenty of reason — financial and competitive — to give this team the benefit of the doubt and look to add, not subtract.

“There’s a lot of options. I’m glad I don’t have to make the decisions,” Belt said. “Obviously I’m biased, but I know this team can win. I’ve seen it. I know if we can get everybody on the field, we’re going to be a good ballclub. I’d love to see us make some moves to make this team better to get to the playoffs. That’s what I want to do. I want to make the playoffs. I’m not ready to give in or give up on this year.”

It’s fair to give this current core a chance, but a visit from the Chicago Cubs this weekend could give the Giants a little perspective on why it may be in their best interest to sell.

One of the lasting visuals of the 2021 trade deadline was Kris Bryant, on the phone in the Cubs dugout, in tears. A fan favorite and MVP who helped snap the franchise’s 108-year World Series drought found out he’d been traded to the surging Giants, following his teammates Anthony Rizzo, Javier Báez and a few other impending free agents out the door.

After a hot start that year, the Cubs had plummeted to a 51-55 record by the deadline and, with the contention window essentially shut, their brass had decided they wouldn’t be handing out any pricey extensions to their title core in the offseason. So they started a full teardown as soon as possible.

For Bryant, Rizzo, Baez, Pederson (then a Cubs outfielder) and pitchers Craig Kimbrel and Ryan Tepera, the Cubs got a bounty of prospects with a handful already making strides, including both Giants prospects Alexander Canario (OF) and Caleb Kilian (SP), infielder Nick Madrigal from the White Sox and outfielder Pete Crow-Armstrong, a former first-round draft choice, from the Mets.

The Giants were on the other side of the sell-off, obvious buyers in need of Bryant’s bat for their postseason dreams en route to setting a franchise record for wins.

Things aren’t quite as bad in San Francisco they were for the Cubs last year. The Giants have better postseason odds than Chicago did last season, but their outlook has taken a turn toward being an alarmingly mediocre team in 2022.

This roster provides an opportunity to do a little of what the Cubs did — and are expected to do again at this deadline with catcher Willson Contreras. By trading good talent from a middling roster, the Giants can collect prospects in hopes of striking gold in the future.

If the Giants don’t see themselves as serious contenders for a World Series, they can shift their attention to the huge, waving red flag.

The organization has a dearth of exciting, young prospects to usher in the next generation of Giants baseball. Though the farm system has been on the rise since Zaidi took the reins in 2018 — MLB.com ranks it as the 11th best system in baseball — their disappointing season can be attributed, in part, to not having the influx of young players that their division rivals churn out like cakes.

The Juan Soto sweepstakes should be a wake-up call. The Giants should be first in line to make an offer, but they don’t have the prospects to give without completely gutting their pipeline, let alone compete with most of the other interested teams.

Competing factors are at play; perhaps the Giants executives aren’t willing to take the attendance hit a midseason sell-off could entail. But if a few moves could better position the Giants for the future, why wait around?