Barber: Recipe for 49ers Super Bowl victory in five ingredients

MIAMI - My prediction for Super Bowl LIV is that my prediction will have changed seven times between the time I wrote these words and the time you read them.

This is one of the closest Super Bowl matchups I can remember, and an intriguing one. It’s hard to imagine the 49ers’ defense, as stout as it is, stopping Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs. It’s hard to imagine the Kansas City defense shutting down San Francisco’s complex run game. The varying styles and goals - the Niners wanting to bleed the clock, the Chiefs perfectly comfortable with a track meet - make it all the more fascinating.

The 49ers are the more balanced team, that’s for sure. They don’t have a glaring weakness. Against this lethal opponent, though, much will have to go right for the NFC representative. Here are five things the Niners will need to ride away from Hard Rock Stadium as champions Sunday.

1. Keep Mahomes in pocket

There is almost nothing a defense can do to totally thwart Mahomes, because he does so many things well. He has arm strength and touch, uncanny vision and an ability to throw on the run - and to run on the run.

But if the SF edge rushers, most prominently Dee Ford and newly crowned NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year Nick Bosa, can keep the QB between the tackles, they’ll have won half the battle. Contain Mahomes and funnel him toward the relentless push of D-tackles DeForest Buckner and Arik Armstead, and he’ll have a much harder time creating explosive plays.

2. Kittle over Kelce

The beauty of Kyle Shanahan’s offense is its multiplicity. His top player, George Kittle, didn’t do much in the passing game during the NFC playoffs, catching a total of four passes for 35 yards against Minnesota and Green Bay. It didn’t matter. He contributed in the run game and the 49ers won both games in landslides.

The Niners will be harder pressed to outgain and outscore the Chiefs, though. They need Kittle to have a big game. Fortunately for Shanahan, the showcase of the two best tight ends in football looks good for SF. Travis Kelce is a beast of a receiver, but the 49ers’ underneath defenders, especially linebackers Dre Greenlaw, Fred Warner and Kwon Alexander, are superb in coverage. The Kansas City linebackers aren’t as accomplished. This could be an evening for Kittle to run wild.

3. Saleh’s adjustments

Robert Saleh finished a distant second in the Assistant Coach of the Year voting. He probably should have won. His defense is the primary reason the 49ers are playing in this game.

Saleh created a havoc-wreaking system and helped find the right players to staff it. If he has a negative trait, it’s a tendency toward stubbornness. He has tremendous faith in defense, even when things aren’t going well. It nearly cost the 49ers in two games against Arizona, probably did cost them in losses to Seattle and Atlanta.

Saleh’s opponent in Sunday’s chess match is Kansas City coach Andy Reid, a sharp offensive mind. Reid will come up with new wrinkles and adjust on the fly. If Saleh can match him, the 49ers might be able to frustrate the Chiefs and wear them down.

4. Get it done on special teams

Mecole Hardman is a difference maker for the Chiefs, and not just at receiver. The rookie is a threat to return any punt or kickoff for a touchdown. He took one kick 104 yards to paydirt this year. It’s a concern for the 49ers, because punter Mitch Wishnowsky, who handles kickoffs, hasn’t been putting many deep in the end zone lately.

The San Francisco coverage teams are really good, though, led by guys like Mark Nzeocha, Tarvarius Moore and Raheem Mostert. If they can prevent Hardman from being a factor in the return game, that’s one less headache for Shanahan.

5. Hold. On. To. The. Ball.

Rare is the NFL game that doesn’t revolve, at least in part, around turnovers. Some of that is a product of game circumstances, of course; teams playing from behind have to take more risks, which leads to sloppiness.

What would really doom the 49ers are unforced errors - an ill-timed fumble or one of those what-are-you-doing-Jimmy throws by Garoppolo. You just can’t afford to give Mahomes the ball on a short field. There’s good news for the Niners here: They’ve been pretty good at securing the ball of late. In two of their past three games (all of them huge moments), they had zero turnovers. Over their past eight contests, they’re averaging one giveaway per game.

That’s a manageable rate. A rate the 49ers can win with.

If most or all of these factors favor the Niners, they will likely bring a sixth Vince Lombardi Trophy back home to Santa Clara. If they favor the Chiefs, well, Shanahan had better hope for a 34-minute power outage. That got Jim Harbaugh’s team back in contention in Super Bowl XLVII.

Phil Barber