Without mistakes, 49ers should beat Vikings

SANTA CLARA

All due respect to the Minnesota Vikings, a quality organization, but the 49ers would have to beat themselves to lose this game.

Not because the 49ers are so much better than the Vikings. They’re not. If the game were on a neutral field and both teams had the same amount of time to rest and prepare, the Vikings might stand a chance. But the game will be in Santa Clara, it will be the Vikings’ second road game in the past six days and the 49ers have had 13 days off.

Advantage: 49ers. They will win if they avoid major mistakes. Here are their keys to victory:

1. Feature Kendrick Bourne: Bourne is Jimmy Garoppolo’s secret weapon.

Garoppolo is making his first career postseason start. He needs to avoid mistakes, meaning he needs to throw only to his best receivers. No risky throws to inconsistent players.

Bourne used to be an inconsistent player, but he has improved. He’s the 49ers’ third receiver, and he deserves a promotion.

Garoppolo’s quarterback rating is a phenomenal 121.2 when throwing to Bourne. Bourne caught 30 passes this season, and 23 were first downs. He also caught five passes in the red zone, and all five were touchdowns. He is the 49ers’ best red-zone weapon.

“There are a lot of guys in this league, and they don’t run to the football like him,” Emmanuel Sanders said. “He has exceptional hands.” Sanders meant Bourne doesn’t wait for the ball to reach him - he goes and gets it. Sanders admires the young receiver.

This could be Bourne’s breakout game. He can line up in the slot and face Andrew Sendejo, the Vikings’ backup safety who will play nickelback because their top-two nickel-?backs are injured. Sendejo can’t cover Bourne.

2. Spread the ball around: Trading for Sanders was smart. He made the 49ers better.

“The trickle-down effect that he had to the other receivers and skill positions on offense was huge,” Garoppolo said.

Sanders has been the grownup in the wide-receiver room, the big brother. Since he joined the team, Deebo Samuel and Bourne, two young receivers, have improved dramatically.

But Sanders has been inconsistent. Garoppolo’s past four interceptions have come when targeting Sanders. Garoppolo hasn’t thrown an interception when targeting anyone else since Week 11. Throwing to Sanders is a risky move right now - a risk the 49ers don’t need to take to beat Minnesota. Garoppolo can throw instead to Bourne, Samuel, Raheem Mostert or Kyle Juszczyk.

3. Limit Dee Ford and Kwon Alexander’s playing time: They may be rusty, plus they might not be fully healthy.

Alexander tore his left pectoral muscle on Halloween. The 49ers activated him Friday off the Injured Reserve List, but they haven’t said how they plan to use him against the Vikings.

“Probably won’t decide that until kickoff,” head coach Kyle Shanahan fibbed. He knows how he’s going to use Alexander. He just doesn’t want the Vikings to know. Fair enough.

Alexander was the starting weakside linebacker and emotional leader of the defense before he got injured. Plus he was excellent in pass coverage. But he missed eight tackles in eight games. His backup, Dre Greenlaw, has missed just six tackles all season. And he has made a whopping 73 tackles since Week 10. And he gave the 49ers a Bye week by tackling Seattle’s Jacob Hollister at the one-inch line on the final play of the regular season.

No reason to move Greenlaw now. He’s playing too well. The 49ers should play Alexander at strong-side linebacker and send him to the bench when they use their nickel defense against the Vikings.

And Ford should play on third downs only, if he plays at all. The 49ers list him as questionable with a hamstring injury. He has pulled it twice already this season. They can’t let him pull it again, because they’ll need him to win the Super Bowl.

They won’t necessarily need Ford to beat the Vikings. The Vikings have a run-first offense, and Ford is a pass-rush specialist. He should play no more than a dozen snaps.

4. Play Emmanuel Moseley if Ahkello Witherspoon continues to play poorly: The 49ers benched Witherspoon with two minutes remaining in the regular-season finale after he had allowed his seventh touchdown catch in just 10 games this season. He missed six games with a foot sprain.

“When you go back and look at that tape, he played a pretty good football game,” defensive coordinator Robert Saleh argued. “There were a couple of times where he got caught in a bad situation. Either way, his ability to put those to bed and compete will always define whether he can finish and play games at his best.”

The 49ers believe in Witherspoon, and he will start against the Vikings. But his backup, Moseley, played well as a fill-in starter. He has given up a quarterback rating of just 78.5. Witherspoon gave up a rating of 108.7.

If Witherspoon struggles early in the game, the 49ers need to bench him, not wait until the fourth quarter. Don’t let Witherspoon end the season prematurely.

5. Don’t force the ball to George Kittle: The Vikings are the best team in the NFL at defending tight ends, because they have two terrific safeties - Harrison Smith and Anthony Harris.

“Smith has been there for a while,” Shanahan said. Then Shanahan said something puzzling. “41, he has come in and been very impressive.”

Harris is “41.” That’s his jersey number. Shanahan still hasn’t memorized his name, because Harris used to be a backup. He became a full-time starter this season and intercepted six passes. He’s terrific. Get to know him, Kyle.

Garoppolo should resist the urge to feature Kittle, and avoid throwing passes over the middle - they’re too risky against the Vikings. Last time he faced them in 2018, he threw three picks and his quarterback rating was 45.5. Better to attack the Vikings cornerbacks - Trae Waynes, who gave up a 104.1 quarterback rating this season, and Xavier Rhodes, who gave up a 124.8 rating.

Test that guy.

Final score: 49ers 24, Vikings 21.