Will conservatives field a candidate to replace Kelley?

Handing off the conservative, business-friendly mantle of Sonoma County Supervisor Paul Kelley is proving a tall order for north county agriculture, business and wine interests that are running short of time.

Windsor councilman Steve Allen and Cloverdale Fire Department Chief Brian Elliott confirmed Wednesday they are exploring a run for the office being vacated by Kelley, who announced Jan. 14 he won't seek re-election. Their names emerged this week after the leading contender, Lisa Wittke Schaffner, executive director of the Sonoma County Alliance, told confidants that she won't seek the post.

The problem is Kelley announced his decision not to seek election to a fifth term just two months before the filing deadline, very late in the game of fund-raising and endorsement-harvesting.

"We have been wracking out brains to find someone, but it is almost too late," said Rob Muelrath, a political consultant with close ties to the agricultural and business communities. "We don't want to just hand the seat over."

But that's what many Kelley supporters now concede may happen because the two main contenders, Windsor councilwoman Debora Fudge and Healdsburg councilman Mike McGuire, have been working liberal, environmental and union groups for support and donations for several months. When campaign finance reports are released next week, each is expected to report having raised about $100,000.

Candidates have until March 17 to file for a seat in which the incumbent is not seeking re-election. Kelley has remained mum about his future plans, although prevailing political chatter is that he withdrew in order to be better positioned for an application to become the general manager of the county Water Agency.

The sprawling district includes Windsor, Healdsburg, Cloverdale and a slim part of northern Santa Rosa. For three decades the seat has been held by conservatives, first Nick Espostio, who served from 1979 to 1995, and then Kelley.

Muelrath and other veterans of political campaigns say Schaffner, with her ties to the business community, would be the strongest candidate to take up where Kelley is leaving off. Schaffner served on the Healdsburg council eight years and is credited with expanding the Alliance's membership and programs.

"I am not running because I feel the Alliance can do better by becoming part of the fix, not the fight," Schaffner said Wednesday.

Both Allen and Elliott said they are hesitant to enter a race starting from so far behind.

Allen said he may decide this weekend.

"I am still considering it and it is something I have been very interested in," Allen said. "But with the lateness and things, I don't know whether I am going to be able to do it."

Elliott said he had considered running at some point in the future when he had expected Kelley to retire.

"I have floated a few balloons and am having quality conversations with a lot of people," Elliott said. "But the timing is really tough for a new candidate. There are certain realities I have to face this late in the game."

Some political insiders say McGuire is benefiting from the absence of a Kelley-like candidate, picking up endorsements from north county residents who view McGuire as less in the liberal mold than Fudge.

Jason Liles, McGuire's campaign manager, said new endorsements for his candidate began rolling in immediately after Kelley announced his decision.

An endorsement of McGuire by Cloverdale councilman Joe Palla was an early indication that some key Kelley supporters are already shifting and not waiting for long-shot candidates to emerge, Muelrath said.

"The Sonoma County Alliance has supported McGuire in the past, so they know he is not anti-business even though his support from labor gives them heartburn," Muelrath said. "When you are looking at the writing on the wall, you don't have a lot of choices."

Sonoma County Farm Bureau executive director Lex McCorvey said the organization has to rethink its previous endorsement of Kelley and is interviewing Fudge and McGuire today for possible endorsement.

"The Farm Bureau board will have to decide and we'll wait on a new endorsement only so long as we know that these other candidates are going to make a run at it," McCorvey said. "Right now, we are looking at a two-person race."