Possible candidates eyeing Efren Carrillo's Sonoma County supervisor seat

The field of potential candidates who could seek the Sonoma County supervisor seat currently held by Efren Carrillo is growing more crowded as the deadline to formally declare nears, while pressure is building for supervisorial hopefuls to start building up their financial war chests.

But who decides to run - and when they publicly announce - rests heavily on a highly anticipated announcement from Carrillo, who has not said whether he plans to seek re-election to the 5th District seat he’s held since 2009.

Prior to his 2013 arrest on suspicion of burglary and prowling outside his female neighbor’s home, the two-term incumbent was seen as a rising political star in the Democratic Party, widely speculated as a strong candidate for higher public office. Carrillo was acquitted after state prosecutors charged him with peeking, but the incident has since overshadowed his political aspirations.

“I have not decided,” Carrillo said earlier this month when asked about his plans. The 34-year-old supervisor is engaged and expecting a child.

The June 2016 primary is 10 months away. If no candidate receives more than 50 percent of the vote, the top two vote-getters will face off in the November general election that year.

As Carrillo mulls his future plans, the number of people being floated who might jockey for the seat - which represents western Sonoma County and stretches from the lower Russian River area to the Mendocino County border - has reached double digits.

At least three west Sonoma County residents, none of whom has ever been elected to major public office, said they are considering a run.

They include Dennis Rosatti, a Sebastopol resident and executive director of Sonoma County Conservation Action, the county’s most influential environmental organization; Tawny Tesconi, who was born and raised in west Santa Rosa and was recently appointed director of the county’s General Services Department; and Rue Furch, a former longtime Sonoma County planning commissioner and Sebastopol resident who ran for supervisor against Carrillo in 2008 and lost.

Another potential candidate is Noreen Evans, the former state senator who stepped down last year after a decade in the California Legislature.

Evans did not respond to multiple interview requests over the past two weeks. Whether she’d seek to represent the 5th District is unclear, but a future run could be problematic since she recently purchased a home in Rincon Valley, in the 1st District represented by Board of Supervisors Chairwoman Susan Gorin.

If Evans chooses to run for Carrillo’s seat, she also could face scrutiny over her previous bid for supervisor in 2000, when she sought to represent the 3rd District, which encompasses most of Santa Rosa, and lost to then-incumbent Tim Smith.

March deadline

The filing deadline for candidates running for supervisor is in March. The two other supervisors up for re-election next year - Gorin and Shirlee Zane - already have launched their campaigns and begun raising money. Carrillo has not pulled papers for re-election or started raising money, campaign finance records show.

The political allegiances and ideological composition of the field of candidates vying to represent the 5th District - Sonoma County’s largest, encompassing the entirety of the county’s celebrated coastline - will largely be shaped by whether Carrillo and Evans decide to run.

“The 5th is the only game in town, partly because of the amount of uncertainty around it,” said David McCuan, a Sonoma State University political scientist. “And everyone is paying attention to this race because it sets forth the direction of the Board of Supervisors on so many key issues facing this county ... whoever wins could push the board majority to the left or to the right.”

McCuan said at present, the focal point is the possible political standoff between Carrillo and Evans.

“The question is can Carrillo rehabilitate his image, and is Noreen running?” McCuan said. “If she does, she becomes a formidable candidate, and if she doesn’t, she becomes an important king- or queenmaker.”

Potential candidates

Tesconi, Rosatti and Furch said they are thinking about running, but they have not made up their minds.

“Some people have told me that I should consider it, but that’s where I am at this point,” said Tesconi, 53. “I grew up here, and I do want to make sure Sonoma County stays wonderful and successful, so I’ve often thought about leadership roles in Sonoma County as being something I’m interested in.”

Tesconi has worked for Sonoma County government since 2007. She is the first woman to head the General Services Department. In that position, she oversees a $40 million annual budget and 119 employees, and handles programs and maintenance for county-owned real estate, buildings, infrastructure and vehicles, as well as the county’s energy retrofit program.

Prior to her General Services role, Tesconi was the manager of the Sonoma County Fair. She was also the executive officer for the Sonoma-Marin Fair in Petaluma.

Rosatti, 38, said he is “seriously considering” a run, but is weighing what kind of impact a heated political battle could have on his family.

“Honestly, I’ve been overwhelmed with the number of people who have encouraged and supported me,” Rosatti said. “I’m not wealthy enough to fund my own campaign, so I’d have to have the fundraising and community support to make it happen.”

Rosatti previously served for five years as a school board member for the Harmony Union School District, based in Occidental. He was appointed to the school board in 2007 and elected to a full four-year term after that.

Furch, 69, said she “hasn’t rejected the idea” of a run, arguing that her odds would be better than her previous bid for supervisor in 2008, when Carrillo narrowly defeated her with 50.7 percent of the vote.

“This time would be very different ... there wouldn’t be a first-term incumbent, and people tend to respond favorably to a first-term incumbent,” Furch said, explaining her reasoning for opting out of running against Carrillo in 2012. “And if he doesn’t run this time, the field is wide open. There won’t be that name recognition, so everyone will have to work a little harder. At the same time, there wouldn’t be that voting record when people could say, ‘I remember when you did this.’ ”

Furch was a county planning commissioner for 17 years before being ousted from the position by Carrillo, who appointed a replacement when he took office in 2009.

The race to watch

Local agriculture, business and union groups characterized the 5th District race as the most crucial local race to watch in 2016, and leaders of local organizations said they are ready to begin interviewing candidates in order to decide who to throw support with endorsements and money.

“This is going to be the interesting one, and the balance on the board could dramatically shift, so we’re paying attention,” said John Bly, executive vice president of the Northern California Engineering Contractors Association. “The balance of power seems to have been in place, to a certain extent, for businesses and agriculture and construction groups, with David (Rabbitt) and James (Gore) and Efren. They were approachable, but we don’t know if Efren is going to run, so now that balance could be askew.”

Bly, who was one of Carrillo’s strongest supporters in his two previous elections, said his group has not endorsed anyone yet and is waiting for Carrillo to make a decision.

“He has the important qualities ... he studies the issues, he’s hardworking and he’s not a pushover. In the end, that’s all you can really ask for,” Bly said. “But no one is raising money and no one is out building alliances, and that’s encouraging others to enter the fray. There’s a lot at stake with the roads, with pensions, housing - and water is huge.”

Some of Carrillo’s previous backers, including the Sonoma County Farm Bureau, were not as forthcoming.

“Yes, we’ve been a strong supporter of Efren, but no, we have not decided who we’re going to endorse,” said John Azevedo, president of the Farm Bureau. “We’re going to look at all the candidates who run in the 5th, then come up with a decision.”

Carrillo’s detractors and some of his allies said his 2013 arrest and a $2.5 million civil lawsuit filed against him by his former neighbor could forestall any shot he has at retaining his seat. In the civil suit, the former neighbor claims he intended to sexually assault her when he came to her home in the middle of the night dressed only in his socks and underwear.

“I am concerned that it would end up being a character race, rather than an issue race,” said Marlene Soiland, president of the Sonoma County Alliance, a powerful Sonoma County business advocacy group. “And that’s sad ... it’s going to be hard to replace him if he decides not to run.”

Some of Carrillo’s harshest critics, including the North Bay Labor Council, said his previous actions disqualify him for public office.

“We believe that public officials need to be held to a higher standard, and his behavior reflects poorly on Sonoma County,” said Jack Buckhorn, president of the North Bay Labor Council, which backed Carrillo in 2012.

The labor organization called on Carrillo to resign following his 2013 arrest, a position Buckhorn said the group stands by.

“We felt that he compromised his ability to perform his job, and that hasn’t changed,” Buckhorn said. “We saw a pattern of poor behavior, so we feel it’s in the county’s best interest that he step down.”

Second chances

Others disagree.

“I would support him if he decides to run,” said Lisa Carreño, the regional director of 10,000 Degrees, a college scholarship and mentoring program.

She previously called on him to resign but has since changed her mind.

“In no way, shape or form do I condone Efren’s behavior that led to his arrest,” Carreño said. “What I have seen in his conduct since then is a real commitment to refocus his attention to what he was voted in to do, and I think he is effectively doing that. We are a country that typically believes in second chances, and I believe that, too.”

His strongest allies also are standing by his side, despite his political turmoil.

Rob Muelrath, Carrillo’s longtime political consultant, said he’s “behind him 110 percent,” and others said Carrillo should be forgiven.

“Is this something that will destroy him politically? I don’t know, but I think we live in a society that believes that people can restore themselves,” said Eric Koenigshofer, one of Carrillo’s most trusted friends. “But he’s getting married and having a new baby, so we’ll see what he decides.”