PD Editorial: California must avoid an undercount in 2020 census

California's population increased to nearly 40 million as of July 1, but that's not enough to keep pace with the rest of the country. The state could be in for an underrepresented decade in the 2020s.

Demographers estimate that about 200,000 more Californians were born than died 2017-18, and about 21,000 more people moved to the state than moved out. The statewide population reached 39.8 million people. About one out of every eight people in America resides in California. Slow growth and even population declines were not evenly distributed, though. Urban areas tended to have strong growth, while rural areas declined.

The Constitution requires the federal government to count how many people are in the country every 10 years. The results determine how many representatives each state sends to Congress and how the federal government distributes billions of dollars. The street-by-street data informs how officials draw the borders of local, state and federal legislative districts.

In other words, the census is a big deal. If it's not accurate, states and communities could be shortchanged politically and financially.

That's why Californians should be a little worried about the 2020 census right now. The state's population growth has been slow compared with states like Oregon and Texas. We're even on the cusp of losing a seat in the House of Representatives. California currently has 53 representatives. One lost seat would mean less influence in Washington and one fewer electoral vote for the 2024 and 2028 presidential elections.

The North Bay could lose clout in Sacramento, too. Counties around here showed at best modest growth that was slower than the state growth rate, and several counties lost residents. Sonoma County lost about 300 residents. When state Senate and Assembly districts are drawn, they will have to factor that in.

The state Legislative Analyst's Office this month released a report on the potential impacts of the census on California. It noted that for the past few decades, the census undercounted Californians, sometimes severely. That's possible again in 2020. If the Trump administration has its way, it's even likely.

The Census Bureau has proposed including a citizenship question on the census form in 2020. That, experts warn, will intimidate many immigrants into not participating. Immigrants are a big part of what's called the “hard-to-count” population, and California has a higher share of hard-to-count residents than most other states. The Public Policy Institute of California estimates that in some communities, three-quarters of the population qualifies as hard-to-count.

California Attorney General Xavier Becerra has filed a lawsuit against the citizenship question. He has had some early success, but the case is ongoing.

And if he wins, it's not as if the Trump administration has demonstrated a strong desire to reach hard-to-count residents. If the Census Bureau undercounts progressive California, reducing its power and its share of federal resources, that suits many Republicans just fine.

For now, the best hope is that the new Democratic majority in the House of Representatives prioritizes the census amid all the other big issues Democrats are itching to take on. If they don't, 2020 is shaping up to be one of the most inaccurate counts in decades, especially for California.

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