How 49ers can beat the Rams

SANTA CLARA - Beating the Rams would qualify as an extraordinary accomplishment for the 49ers. Make no mistake about it.

Sure, the 49ers are undefeated, and the Rams are 3-2. Plus, the Rams won't have their star running back, Todd Gurley. He'll be out with a quadriceps injury.

But the 49ers won't have fullback Kyle Juszczyk, left tackle Joe Staley, right tackle Mike McGlinchey, slot receiver Trent Taylor and No. 1 cornerback Ahkello Witherspoon, and maybe even their star tight end, George Kittle, who injured his groin Friday during practice. The 49ers list him as “questionable.”

The 49ers still have lots of talented players, especially on defense. But most of the 49ers never have played a game as big as this one. The Rams are an experienced team that has played in plenty of big games. And the Rams have home-field advantage. And they've had 10 days to prepare.

Here's what the 49ers have to do to pull off a franchise-altering upset.

1. The defense must keep the Rams offense one-dimensional.

The Rams haven't had a good run game since the New England Patriots shut it down in the Super Bowl.

The Rams averaged 4.9 yards per carry during the 2018 regular season and ranked third in rushing yards. Then, when they played the Patriots in the Super Bowl, the Patriots used a 6-1 defensive front - six defenders on the line of scrimmage and one linebacker - to hold the Rams to just 3.4 yards per carry and win 13-3.

Since then, practically every team has used the same 6-1 defensive front against the Rams, because the Rams still haven't found an effective way to counter it. This season, they're averaging just 4.2 yards per carry, and they rank 22nd in rushing yards. Plus, their quarterback, Jared Goff, has a passer rating of just 83.0.

The Rams offense has major problems, even though it still has excellent wide receivers (Cooper Kupp, Robert Woods and Brandin Cooks), an emerging tight end (Gerald Everett) and a talented head coach, Sean McVay.

“We're really in the process of continuing to figure out our identity,” McVay said on a conference call with Bay Area reporters. “It's a challenge with some of the new personnel and different guys we're getting incorporated. It's a long year and there are a lot of games left, but we have to figure it out fast.”

Defensive coordinator Robert Saleh would be smart to use the 6-1 defense until McVay figures out how to beat it.

2. Saleh must double-cover Kupp on third downs.

Saleh is a football philosopher.

“With us, on first and second down, philosophically we're going to play it as sound as possible with our coverages,” Saleh explained. “Then when we get to third down, you'll see all the different exotics that we'll create week to week.”

Saleh wants to stop the run and take away deep passes on first and second down. That's what he considers “sound defense.” Then, on third down, he gets tricky.

Goff wants to throw to Kupp on third down. Kupp is the Rams' best receiver, and he lines up in the slot. On third down this season, he has 13 catches for 213 yards and three touchdowns. None of the other Rams players have more than six third-down catches.

The 49ers should double-cover Kupp, and force Goff to go through his passing progression while he faces one of the best pass rushes in the NFL. Goff already has thrown seven interceptions this season. He could throw more against the 49ers.

3. Richard Sherman must play better than last week.

Before Witherspoon sprained his foot against the Pittsburgh Steelers, he was the 49ers' best cornerback by far. A legitimate No. 1 NFL cornerback.

Of course, Sherman intercepted an underthrown pass during the first quarter against the Browns, an excellent play by the future Hall of Famer. But, most of the game, his coverage was loose. The Browns targeted him eight times - they weren't intimidated by him at all - and completed four passes for 75 yards.

“Once we got up (by lots of points), we just had to stay on top of everything and make sure they don't get anything cheap,” Sherman explained. “They were running out routes and flat routes and things that you'll give up because if you jump an out route and they run a post route, those are plays that break a defense.”

Sherman meant he purposely gave up shorter catches to prevent big ones. Smart. But the coaches' tape clearly shows Sherman doesn't change directions as well as he used to, and that's to be expected - he's 31 and has a surgically repaired Achilles tendon.

Instead of making sharp cuts, Sherman tends to make gradual turns this season. Meaning he's vulnerable defending sharp in-breaking or out-breaking routes. He's still extremely savvy, and tries to anticipate those routes so he can defend them.

4. Jimmy Garoppolo must complete screens and extended handoffs to his running backs and wide receivers.

In 2017, Jimmy G could have stood for “Jimmy Gunslinger.” Now, it might as well stand for “Jimmy Game Manager.”

The 49ers rank 30th out of 32 teams in pass attempts this season. They have become a run-first team, and Garoppolo has become a complementary piece, not the driving force of the offense.

“Seems like he's managing the operation,” McVay said of Garoppolo. “He's getting in and out of the huddle, making good decisions, distributing the ball where it's supposed to go.”

Garoppolo hasn't regressed - his quarterback rating is 99.4, which is good. He simply doesn't have many weapons, other than Kittle, who has a groin injury. None of the wide receivers have played well consistently. And this week, Garoppolo will rely on two backup tackles - Justin Skule and Daniel Brunskill - for pass protection.

The 49ers' best strategy when they pass will be to get the ball out of Garoppolo's hands as quickly as possible. Shanahan should put Garoppolo in the shotgun and make him throw quick screens to the running backs and to rookie Deebo Samuel, a wide receiver who's built like a running back. The Rams cornerbacks don't like to tackle.

5. Kyle Shanahan must find a way to run the ball effectively without Kyle Juszczyk.

The Rams have an identity crisis on offense. But so do the Niners, because they they've lost the player who gives them their identity: Juszczyk.

“Kyle does an excellent job moving him around,” McVay said of Juszczyk. “And his skillset creates a bunch of different looks out of the same personnel grouping.”

Juszczyk allowed the 49ers to have to league's most intricate, sophisticated running game in terms of blocking combinations. Now, Juszczyk is out, and the 49ers' run game could become simpler and more pedestrian. The Rams have no idea what to expect.

“We're going to change up everything,” Shanahan said with a smirk on Friday. “It's going to totally look different on Sunday.”

Was he joking or telling the truth?

Who knows?

Shanahan could replace Juszczyk with backup tight end Ross Dwelley and attempt to run the same plays the 49ers ran the first four games of the season. Or, Shanahan could create a brand-new offense. He could use three tight ends, put Garoppolo in the shotgun and run a college-style offense featuring zone reads and run-pass options. It is what the 49ers did at times against the Browns.

“If there's anybody who can do a great job of continuing to utilize guys in a manner that gives defenses problems, it's Kyle and his group,” McVay said. “It's still going to be a really tough matchup for our defense, but that's a big loss, because (Juszczyk) is a great player.”

Expect Shanahan to unveil new wrinkles the Rams haven't seen.

The 49ers have the element of surprise.