Crunch time arrives for 49ers

All of a sudden, the 49ers find themselves in Sarasota, Florida for the week, injured and out of breath after losing two of their past four games and falling to fifth place in the NFC playoff picture.

A month ago, the 49ers were undefeated. Now, they probably have to win all four of their remaining games just to win the NFC West and earn a bye week for the first round of the playoffs.

How did the 49ers end up in this position after such a strong start?

They suffered a last-second defeat to the Seahawks at home, and another last-second defeat to the Ravens in Baltimore last Sunday. This Sunday, the 49ers will play the Saints in New Orleans. The Saints are 10-2. Flying home from the East Coast only to fly back a few days later would exhaust the 49ers and increase their odds of losing a must-win game against an excellent opponent. So they went to sunny Sarasota.

The 49ers have no margin for error to get a first-round bye. They need to finish the season like they started it - flawlessly. Here’s what could stand in the way of a perfect finish.

1. Injuries: The 49ers didn’t pace themselves. Most good teams pace themselves in the first half of the season so they can come on strong at the end. But the 49ers played harder than every other team in the first part of the season and wore themselves down. Now, they limp into the most important month of the schedule, December.

Strong safety Jaquiski Tartt broke ribs against the Ravens and may not play this weekend. He did not practice Wednesday or Thursday in Florida.

Cornerback Richard Sherman injured his knee against the Ravens and will not be 100% healthy when he plays the Saints, if he plays at all. “I know he’s not all the way there yet,” head coach Kyle Shanahan said of Sherman. “But he’s got a few more days. Hopefully, he’ll be good on Sunday.”

Dee Ford has a hamstring injury, plus a lingering knee issue that will affect him all season and possibly the rest of his career. He missed the past two games and has played only 222 defensive snaps for the 49ers, who will pay him $21 million this season.

Left tackle Joe Staley has finger, leg and back injuries and has played just one game since Sept. 15. Wide receiver Deebo Samuel is playing through an injured shoulder. Wide receiver Emmanuel Sanders is playing with cracked ribs. And tight end George Kittle is playing with a fractured ankle.

“George is not going to be 100% until the offseason,” Shanahan said. “There’s always pain tolerance he’s going to have to deal with.”

Ditto for lots of players on the roster. At what point do all these injuries degrade the team?

2. Fatigue: The 49ers have played nine games in a row, because their bye week was Week 3. Meaning they haven’t had more than a few days off since late September. They’re tired.

Their best game was Oct. 27, when they embarrassed the Carolina Panthers 51-13. The 49ers held nothing back. Running back Tevin Coleman averaged 9.5 yards per carry and scored four touchdowns, and rookie defensive end Nick Bosa had three sacks and an interception. They were brilliant.

But since that game, Bosa has recorded just one sack, while Coleman has scored only one touchdown and averaged a measly 2.5 yards per carry. They don’t seem like themselves.

Fortunately for the 49ers, running back Raheem Mostert has fresh legs. The third-stringer has just 92 carries this season, but has averaged a whopping 5.9 yards per carry. Plus, he ran for 146 yards against the Ravens. He can start the final four games if necessary.

3. Lack of big-game experience: The next four weeks, the 49ers will have to play the Saints and the Seahawks -two of the most battle-tested teams in the NFC. Both have been good all decade. Both have played dozens and dozens of huge games.

The 49ers haven’t. They’ve been good for three months. That’s it.

Most of the 49ers’ players are young. Only eight of their 53 players (15%) have playoff experience: Staley, Sherman, Ford, Coleman, Sanders, Garrett Celek, Kyle Juszczyk and Robbie Gould.

One of the 49ers’ least experienced players is quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo. He has started only 22 games in his career. And he hasn’t always risen to the caliber of his competition during major statement games.

“With a young team, myself included, these big games, they’ll only help us going forward,” Garoppolo said. “It’s about stepping up in the crucial times and just making the plays that are there for you. Not doing too much, not doing anything outside of your norm, but just being ready when your number is called.”

Make no mistake, Jimmy’s number will be called.

4. Jimmy Garoppolo’s turnovers: The past four games, the 49ers have committed six turnovers, and Garoppolo has committed all six. Three of his turnovers were fumbles deep in the 49ers’ territory, and all three fumbles happened because Garoppolo held the ball loosely in the pocket while under pressure and didn’t throw the ball away.

Garoppolo almost never throws the ball away - that’s part of the reason he has completed 69% of his passes this season. He would rather take a sack than throw the ball out of bounds and lower his completion percentage.

Garoppolo needs to forget about his stats, and focus on doing the right things for his team. The 49ers don’t need him to make big plays - they can win with their defense. They need Garoppolo to not make game-losing plays. And they need him to keep two hands on the football while he’s in the pocket, for crying out loud.

5. Kyle Shanahan’s play-calling under pressure: Some coaches are creative. Other coaches are creative but also calm under pressure.

Kansas City Chiefs head coach Andy Reid is extremely creative. But in a close game, he often panics and beats himself with questionable play calls in crunch time. That’s one reason he never has won a Super Bowl.

Saints head coach Sean Payton is creative and calm under pressure. He doesn’t lose his nerve with the game on the line, and that’s one reason he has a Super Bowl ring.

Shanahan certainly has proven he’s creative. Now, he needs to show he can keep his cool during big moments, too - needs to show he’s like Payton. Shanahan beat himself in the Super Bowl when he had a 25-point second-half lead and stopped running the ball, and he beat himself last week against the Ravens.

The 49ers had the ball. It was fourth and one late in the game. Had the 49ers converted on fourth down, they probably would have won. They needed to gain only 36 inches.

Normally, Shanahan would call a run. The 49ers are a ?run-first offense. That’s their identity. Shanahan also could have called a play-action pass. Could have made the Ravens defense sell out to stop the run, then thrown a quick pass to a running back in the flat. Easy. The 49ers do it all the time.

Instead, Shanahan went out of character and called a drop-back pass. No play fake. No deception. No nothing. The pass got knocked down and the 49ers went on to lose.

Call it a learning experience. Has he learned enough to beat the Saints in New Orleans?