Raiders heading to hostile territory needing a win

The NFL has laid out a path by which the Raiders can clinch a playoff berth on Sunday. That’s right, the playoffs are just five (not so easy) steps away for the 7-8 Raiders.

First, the Raiders will need to beat the Broncos in Denver. After that ... well, it doesn’t really matter, according to the Broncos’ Phillip Lindsay.

“If they think they’re going to come here and clinch a playoff (spot), they got another thing coming. If they think they’re going to come in here and just get one, they’re sadly mistaken,” Denver’s running back told reporters Tuesday.

In short, along with winning in Denver, the Raiders will also need victories from the Ravens, Texans, Colts and (probably) the Patriots on Sunday.

If all those things happen, at 8-8 the Raiders would become the 13th team with a non-winning record to make the playoffs since the NFL went to a 16-game schedule in 1978.

The Raiders have been in this spot - needing to win and then rely on help from other teams to make the playoffs - twice before during the last week of a season. Both times the Raiders got the necessary help, but dropped the ball themselves. They missed the playoffs in 2011 when the Chargers beat them and, before that, in 1979 when they lost to the Seahawks.

If you’re into omens, the last time the Raiders came through when needing a last-week win to make the playoffs was against the Broncos in 1993. The Raiders, then in LA, overcame two separate 17-point deficits for a thrilling 33-30 overtime win.

But regardless of how the Raiders fare in Denver, they will finish their time in Oakland with just one winning record in their final 17 years here. Not exactly the kind of legacy they’ll be eager to drag along with them to Vegas.

Here’s a closer look at what to look for in what could be the last Oakland Raiders game ever:

Reasons for Raiders optimism

Keeping Lindsay in check

Phillip Lindsay isn’t having the impact he had last year as a rookie Pro Bowl running back, and the Raiders have kept him pretty well bottled up in three career games. They’ve held him to less than 50 yards rushing in his last two games against them. The Raiders’ run defense is eighth-best in the league, allowing 100.0 per game, and held the super-quick Lindsay to just 43 yards in the season opener. He comes into Sunday’s game needing 42 more yards to reach 1,000 yards for the season. Take note that he is coming off his second-best game of the season - he had 109 yards rushing in a 27-17 victory over Detroit, albeit against a 21st-ranked Lions run defense. The Broncos could continue to focus on establishing the run through Lindsay, whose production has increased to an average of 16 carries per game since Week 11.

Smooth ride for Carr?

Derek Carr wasn’t sacked or even hit when he faced Denver to open the season, and there are reasons to believe he could operate in a clean pocket once more. The Broncos are 17th in the NFL with 38 sacks and the Raiders offensive line is the sixth-best rated unit, allowing just 24 sacks and the least quarterback hits with 47. For for comparison’s sake, Miami has allowed the most hits at 141. An off season by Von Miller has helped drag Denver’s pass rush win rate down to just 33 percent, 30th in the league. Miller’s 67.6 pass-rushing grade per Pro Football Focus is the first time in his nine-year career he’s had a grade lower than 85.0. In fact, over the two previous seasons no one had a better pass-rushing grade than Miller. It hasn’t helped Miller or the Broncos that Pro Bowl edge rusher Bradley Chubb was lost for the season with an ACL injury after Week 4.

Josh Jacobs to return?

The Raiders didn’t need Jacobs (shoulder injury) to beat the Chargers last week, but their chances of beating the Broncos would grow exponentially with his return Sunday. Jacobs, who is just 300 yards behind the NFL’s leading rusher Nick Chubb of Cleveland despite missing two games, has 1,150 yards and is just 18 yards behind Marcus Allen (1,168 yards in 1984) for fourth place on the Raiders’ single-season rushing record. If Jacobs is a go, he’d be facing a Denver defense that’s 18th against the run. The Broncos, who have given up 269 rushing yards to the Jaguars and 244 to the Bills this year, have allowed fewer than 90 yards rushing just once in their last eight games.

Reasons for Raiders pessimism

Broncos’ offensive line on Lock-down?

In his four starts, Drew Lock has shown he’s quite adept at operating within a clean pocket - his passer rating is 103.0 when he isn’t pressured, as opposed to just 55.0 when he’s feeling the heat. Fortunately for him, his line has done a solid job protecting him. Leading the way lately has been much-maligned left tackle Garett Bolles, who is coming off the best game of his three-year career, according to Pro Football Focus’ analytics. After never posting a grade above 80.0 before, Bolles posted a 93.3 overall grade against Detroit last Sunday. He allowed no pressures on 40 dropbacks and he led all NFL tackles in plus-graded run blocks. It doesn’t hurt Denver that Oakland has the 31st-ranked overall defense, per Football Outsiders.

Mile High trouble through the air

Derek Carr had his way with the Broncos’ pass defense in the opener - he went 22-of-26 for 259 yards, one TD and a 121.0 passer rating - but duplicating that could be challenging. The Broncos have since turned themselves into a pretty formidable pass defense - they’re sixth-ranked in the NFL. They’ve also done a superb job covering tight ends, which isn’t good news for Darren Waller. Much of the credit for Denver’s turnaround goes to Pro Bowl cornerback Chris Harris Jr. and safety Justin Simmons. Harris is still going strong as he’s closing in on his eighth straight season of not allowing a passer rating above 90.0. The 26-year-old Simmons has emerged as the top-rated safety in the league, carrying a 90.7 Pro Football Focus grade.

Broncos’ big-play receiver

Courtland Sutton has quickly become one of the game’s better young receivers and a legitimate deep-pass threat. The 6-foot-4, 216-pounder led AFC receivers with 16.2 yards per catch and he also leads the league with 16 “big play” catches (25 yards or more). Sutton became Denver’s go-to receiver after Emmanuel Sanders was traded to he 49ers and how has 68 catches for 1,060 yards and six touchdowns. And now he gets to face the Raiders’ 27th-ranked pass defense.

Lock probable difference-maker

He may not be Peyton Manning, but after shuffling through guys such as Brock Osweiler, Trevor Siemian, Paxton Lynch, Case Keenum and Joe Flacco the past four years, the Broncos believe they may have finally found their franchise quarterback in Drew Lock. Amazingly, the rookie is the seventh starting quarterback for Denver since Week 8 of the 2017 season. Lock is also the first Broncos quarterback to win three of his first four starts.