Keys to a 49ers win against the Packers

SANTA CLARA - They're so close.

The 49ers just have to beat the Packers to make the Super Bowl. And the 49ers already beat the Packers less than two months ago. Beat them by 29 points. The 49ers are the better team. They know it. The Packers know it. You know it.

Still, the 49ers have to handle their business, play smart and make minimal mistakes or they'll lose to an inferior outfit.

Here are the five keys to the game for the 49ers:

1. Jimmy Garoppolo needs to protect the football: When Garoppolo faced the Packers two months ago, he completed only 14 passes, but he committed no turnovers, meaning he didn't lose the game.

The 49ers need another understated, safety-first performance from Garoppolo. They don't need to him to challenge Aaron Rodgers to a shootout. Rodgers will win that competition. He rarely throws an interception no matter how much he passes. This season, he threw just four picks, as opposed to Garoppolo, who has thrown 13 picks in 17 games.

The 49ers don't need Garoppolo to single-handedly beat the Packers. They need him to hand the ball off as much as possible, make a few clutch throws on third down and protect the ball for dear life.

“Jimmy doesn't care how we win,” head coach Kyle Shanahan said, “whether we're running it, throwing it, whether we've got to do it on defense and protect the ball, or whether we've got to air it out and get some points. He's so locked into whatever the plan is or whatever we're doing. He's just trying to distribute the ball.”

Just don't distribute it to the other team, Jimmy.

2. Shanahan needs to avoid calling reverses and shovel passes: Last week against the Vikings, Shanahan called an intricate, risky reverse for rookie Deebo Samuel.

First, Garoppolo handed the ball to fullback Kyle Juszczyk, who pretended to pitch the ball to running back Tevin Coleman, but instead pitched it to Samuel, who was running a reverse. Samuel caught the wet, slippery ball, ran for six yards and fumbled, but his knee was down so the fumble didn't count.

Shanahan should scrap that play this week.

Too much could go wrong. One mishandled reverse could lead to the turnover that loses the game for the 49ers. They don't need to call plays with lots of moving parts to beat the Packers. The 49ers simply need to run the ball and pass to George Kittle as much as possible. They can win with the basic stuff. No reverses necessary.

3. The 49ers need to bench any player who's not ready for the moment: In 2011, a phenomenal 49ers team lost in the NFC championship game to the inferior New York Giants because of Kyle Williams. The 49ers' young punt returner wasn't ready for the pressure of the big stage.

First, he inexplicably dove to catch a punt in the rain. He didn't lose the ball, but it was a high-risk, low-reward play. Jim Harbaugh didn't bench him, though. This was Harbaugh's big mistake. Williams later fumbled twice on special teams, lost the ball both times and handed the game to the Giants.

Last week, second-year punt returner Richie James Jr. caught a punt over his shoulder at the 49ers' seven-yard line. Big no-no. Coaches teach punt returners to sprint out of the way and let the ball hit the ground when it lands inside the 10-yard line. Don't try to make a difficult catch only to fumble and give the Packers the ball near the end zone.

If James makes another risky catch during a punt, the 49ers should bench him immediately. No messing around.

4. The 49ers need to start Emmanuel Moseley at cornerback: The 49ers believe Ahkello Witherspoon is a future Pro Bowl cornerback and the heir apparent to Richard Sherman. That's why they keep playing Witherspoon despite how awful he has performed recently.

He has given up five touchdown catches in just the past three games. And he didn't even play most of the Vikings game. The 49ers benched him after he gave up a touchdown catch to Stefon Diggs during the second defensive series. After that, he was mostly a spectator.

Witherspoon's backup, Emmanuel Moseley, probably isn't a future Pro Bowl corner - he doesn't have top-end talent. But he's solid and tough and confident. Still, the 49ers say they haven't decided which cornerback will start against the Packers.

“We'll look at everything,” defensive coordinator Robert Saleh said. “We'll let them go through the week and compete. As we get closer, we'll be able to have a decision.

“Moseley did a really nice job (against the Vikings). He's unflappable. He plays his game. He's got a tremendous mindset to him. He's always striving to get better. It's not always clean, but nobody ever is. Witherspoon is no different. He's always striving to get better and do things the right way. But for Mosley, his mindset is what makes him tick.”

And for Witherspoon, his mindset is what holds him back. When he gives up a catch, he loses confidence. He is decidedly flappable. The 49ers can't depend on him right now. They need to start Moseley.

5. Saleh needs to double-cover wide receiver Davante Adams: Realistically, Adams is the only player who can beat the 49ers, aside from Rodgers.

Adams is the Packers' offense. He received 127 targets while no other Packers player received more than 68 this season. If the 49ers shut him down, they'll win. If they don't shut him down, they'll probably lose. The Seahawks let Adams catch eight passes for 160 yards and two touchdowns last week, and lost.

“He's very strong,” Saleh said, referring to Adams. “He's a very good route runner. He's got great hands. He's good running double moves. He just kind of lulls you to sleep, but he's savvy, and him and Aaron Rodgers have a really good relationship. They've got a good rapport with one another, so they're very comfortable.”

The 49ers held Adams to just 43 yards two months ago, but Rodgers missed Adams twice when he was open deep down the sideline. The 49ers didn't shut down Adams as much as Rodgers did.

This time, the 49ers need to shut down Adams themselves. Can't count on Rodgers to do their work for them. And all they have to do is double-cover Adams. Put one corner in his face to take away the slants and in-breaking routes, and force him outside where a safety is playing over the top. Make other Packers step up.

They won't.

Final score: 49ers 20, Packers 17.