Grant Cohn: How 49ers should improve next season

Be realistic.

The 49ers probably won't win the Super Bowl next season — they may not even make the playoffs. They're rebuilding. The current regime has taken two years to get its feet on the ground, and has made incremental improvements along the way, even if the win-loss record doesn't reflect them.

When John Lynch, Kyle Shanahan and Robert Saleh came to the 49ers in 2017, they inherited the worst run defense in franchise history. It gave up 2,654 rushing yards in 2016 under Chip Kelly and defensive coordinator Jim O'Neil, two of the worst coaches ever to work for the 49ers.

The next season under Saleh, the 49ers drastically improved their run defense. It gave up 1,861 rushing yards in 2017, and allowed just 3.8 yards per carry — seventh best in the NFL.

In 2018, the 49ers made another incremental improvement. They enhanced their run offense, and averaged 4.5 yards per carry — the most they've averaged since 2014 when Jim Harbaugh was the head coach. Impressive.

The 49ers still have a number of areas to improve, even if Jimmy Garoppolo and Jerick McKinnon return to full strength next season. I believe the 49ers can make strides in the following areas, and here's why:

1. Pass rush

For the first time, the new regime will invest heavily in edge rushers. The 49ers most likely will sign one in free agency and draft another with their first-round pick.

Last season, the 49ers' edge rushers were Cassius Marsh and Ronald Blair, who were OK. Nothing special. Each recorded only 5.5 sacks. Both probably won't play much next season. Good news for the 49ers.

In 2018, the defense recorded 37 sacks (tied for 22nd most in the NFL), and 92 quarterback hits (tied for 16th). Those numbers and rankings should improve with a new edge-rushing duo, because those players will draw attention, and free up space for the interior rushers — DeForest Buckner and Arik Armstead.

Buckner is the 49ers' best player. He recorded 12 sacks and 20 quarterback hits last season, even though he fought through double-team blocks most of the time. A quality edge rush will prevent opponents from focusing all their attention on Buckner, meaning his numbers should improve, too.

2. Zone coverage

Robert Saleh usually uses zone coverage, although last season you couldn't really call it 'coverage.' The 49ers didn't cover anyone. They stood around and conceded catches before making tackles.

The 49ers defense broke up only 39 passes all season — by far the fewest in the NFL. The second worst in breaking up passes was the Detroit Lions, who broke up 54 passes. The best in that category was the Chicago Bears, who broke up 119.

In fairness to Saleh, he didn't intend his pass defense to be so passive. He uses the same scheme as the Los Angeles Chargers, who broke up 85 passes last season. The Chargers simply had better defensive backs and a better secondary coach than the 49ers.

The Chargers secondary coach is Ron Milus, who has coached NFL DBs for 19 seasons. The 49ers secondary coach was Jeff Hafley, who has only seven seasons of NFL experience. And he has almost zero experience coaching zone-coverage techniques. His background is man-to-man coverage. He was learning the 49ers' defensive scheme along with his players. That's one big reason opposing receivers were so open all the time.

Hafley is out. The 49ers didn't extend his contract, so he went to Ohio State and became their new defensive coordinator. The 49ers replaced him with Joe Woods, who has coached NFL defensive backs the past 15 seasons. And he specializes in teaching the techniques of zone coverage. He should bring respectability to the 49ers pass defense for the first time since Vic Fangio was the defensive coordinator.

3. Defensive takeaways

The 49ers set a new, embarrassing NFL record last season by intercepting just two passes. Two.

As I explained above, the 49ers' defensive players rarely were in position to break up throws, let alone pick them off. Woods will teach them how to anticipate throws and jump routes while playing zone coverage, so 49ers should intercept more than two passes next season. Simple as that. It would be nearly impossible to intercept any fewer.

The 49ers also probably will add a new cornerback and free safety this offseason, both of whom should challenge for starting spots. Incumbent starters Ahkello Witherspoon and Adrian Colbert were two of the worst starting defensive backs in the NFL last season. They were flat-out lost.

4. Offensive giveaways

The 49ers offense committed 32 turnovers last season — tied for second most in the NFL with the Buffalo Bills. Kyle Shanahan's big-play, all-or-nothing offensive mentality typically leads to lots of giveaways, and that won't change. But 32 is exorbitant.

Here's why the 49ers can reduce that number next season:

In 2018, 15 of the 49ers' 32 giveaways came from players who either won't make the team next season, or won't touch the ball.

C.J. Beathard committed 10 turnovers in six games. He probably will be the third-string quarterback next season, if he even makes the team.

Running back Jeff Wilson committed three turnovers in six games. He probably will be on the practice squad.

Running back Raheem Mostert committed one turnover despite carrying the ball only 34 times. He most likely will be a third-stringer.

And running back Alfred Morris committed one turnover as well. He's a free agent, and the 49ers almost certainly won't re-sign him.

The 49ers should have better, more sure-handed players protecting the ball.

5. Second-and-10 offensive production

Speaking of Shanahan's all-or-nothing offense, it leads to another problem.

He's so aggressive on first-and-10, his low-percentage play calls often lead to second-and-10-or-more. And in that situation, the 49ers struggled big time. They averaged only 5.37 yards per play — eighth worst in the NFL.

On second-and-10-or-more, an offense usually uses three wide receivers and a running back who specializes in catching passes. In 2018, the 49ers had no good receivers, and no pass-catching-specialists at running back. McKinnon was supposed to be the receiver out of the backfield, but he tore his ACL before the regular season.

Next season, McKinnon will be back, and starting wide receiver Pierre Garcon will be gone — the 49ers will release him, and most likely get someone better, either in free agency or the draft.

Better skill-position players will lead to better production on second-and-long. That will lead to fewer instances of third-and-long. And that will lead to a better third-down conversion percentage. Call that the sixth area the 49ers should improve next season.

Grant Cohn covers the 49ers and Bay Area sports for The Press Democrat and pressdemocrat.com in Santa Rosa. You can reach him at grantcohn@gmail.com.