Flood forecast eased on Russian River; projected Monday crest would avert major damage

Forecasters have substantially revised their projections for the Russian River’s rise in Guerneville and now say the river is more likely to rise just four feet or so above flood stage by early Monday, rather than eight.

That could mean a huge relief to residents and business owners along the lower reaches of the river, many of which are now more likely to be spared damage if projections hold true.

The river also is not expected to reach flood stage until Sunday afternoon, as opposed to late Thursday, according to the latest projections from the California Nevada River Forecast Center operated by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

New rain forecast for late Friday and Saturday appears poised to raise the river steadily Saturday and Sunday, reaching flood stage of 32 feet around 2 p.m. Sunday and cresting at 36.1 feet around 4 a.m. Monday.

It previously had been projected to reach 39.7 feet by Monday.

Thousands of residents along the river and its tributaries between Healdsburg and Jenner below the 40-foot level are under an evacuation warning instructing them to be prepared to evacuate if conditions warrant it.

The latest forecast was issued at 7:22 a.m. Thursday.

For live storm updates Thursday, click here.