New state data shows Sonoma County population decline continues but is slowing

Sonoma County’s population declined again in 2022, continuing a multiyear slide following the 2017 North Bay wildfires, according to the latest state figures.

The county lost more than 2,400 residents, or about 0.5% of the total population, between Jan. 1, 2022 and Jan. 1, 2023.

That’s on par with most of the Bay Area’s other eight counties, which also saw their population decrease in the last year, according to figures released May 1 by the state Department of Finance.

Across California, only 12 of 58 counties last year saw population gains, mostly in the Central Valley and Southern California.

Observers say wildfires, the COVID-19 pandemic and rising cost of living, particularly the high price of housing, have continued to drive many people out of the Bay Area and other parts of Northern California.

The pattern — and the new data that illustrate it — are not a surprise as California was expected to mark another decline in overall population last year, with more people leaving the state and fewer moving in. About 38.9 million resided in California in 2022, down more than 138,400 year-over-year.

But the data showed the statewide decline is slowing, largely buoyed by immigration, which has started to inch up again following the pandemic. The agency reported almost three times as many immigrants came to California in 2022 compared to 2021.

The Department of Finance uses data collected from birth and death records, driver's license address changes, tax return information, immigration reports, health care and school enrollment to calculate the population.

Meanwhile, the data showed Sonoma County added about 1,600 housing units in 2022, bringing the total to 208,234 homes.

Lisa Wittke Schaffner, chief executive of the North Coast Builders Exchange trade group and former mayor of Healdsburg, said despite the reported increase, more units are needed.

“What we really hear from the employee community and based on how busy my builders are, there’s still a need for housing and I believe all kinds of housing at all levels,” she said.

Statewide figures showed the state added 123,350 homes, including apartments and houses, a reported increase of 0.8%, the highest level since 2008, according to the finance department.

Additional housing could help draw more people to the region. Some of the cities and counties statewide that reported the largest housing increases in 2022 also saw jumps in population, the agency data showed.

Sonoma County was home to 478,174 residents as of Jan. 1, 2023, down 2,449 people year-over-year, according to the state figures.

That extended a five-year decline followed years of steady but marginal growth since 2010.

The county’s population peaked at about 503,400 in 2017 before the October fires. That’s a loss of roughly 25,200 residents in five years, more than the county added between 2010 and 2017, according to state figures.

But, like the state decline, the local exodus appears to be slowing after the county reported losing 7,300 residents, 1.5% of its population, between 2020 and 2021, according to agency data.

Sonoma, Sebastopol and Windsor saw the biggest drops in 2022, each losing more than 1% of their overall population.

Rohnert Park was the only city in the county that didn’t report a significant population change year-over-year. The city lost eight residents, according to state data, equating to a 0% change.

Marin and Napa saw the biggest proportional drops in the Bay Area and some of the biggest across the state at 1%.

Lake County was also among the counties statewide that reported the largest population losses, at 0.9%. Mendocino County’s population dropped by 0.5%.

Each of the nine Bay Area counties added housing units year-over-year as did Lake and Mendocino counties.

Alameda County led in new housing production, reporting a gain of more than 8,500 units, a 1.4% increase.

Sonoma County topped the seven other Bay Area counties, with a proportional gain of 0.8%, or 1,597 new units.

Rohnert Park, long known as a local leader in housing construction, led with 250 additional homes in 2022, a change of 1.4%.

Petaluma saw an increase of 1% and Santa Rosa followed with a gain of 0.9%.

Sebastopol, Sonoma and Windsor, which reported the biggest population drops, also reported the fewest new homes built in 2022.

Sebastopol and Sonoma added eight and 11 units, a reported gain of 0.2%, while Windsor added 31 units, a 0.3% increase.

Wittke Schaffner said, among other challenges, employers struggle to recruit workers to the area because of a lack of housing stock and rising home prices that prevent people from moving here.

Her organization is looking to work with elected officials and housing leaders to encourage more development by easing planning processes, timelines and fees.

She said she is encouraged by some of the proposals put forth by cities across the region and added that elected officials understand increasing housing is vital to economic development.

You can reach Staff Writer Paulina Pineda at 707-521-5268 or paulina.pineda@pressdemocrat.com. On Twitter @paulinapineda22.