Infectious disease experts warn of spring coronavirus wave in Sonoma County with dangerous variants

Even as new coronavirus cases continue to decline or level off, infectious disease experts and public health authorities are warning that yet another wave of coronavirus cases is likely to come in the spring.

The severity of that surge depends on a number of factors, including the success of the current vaccination effort, the dominance of COVID-19 variants and whether the public continues to be vigilant against the virus.

Rather than nearing the end of the pandemic, we’re experiencing the calm before another potential storm, said Dr. Gary Green, an infectious disease expert at Sutter Santa Rosa Regional Hospital.

“We’re not through the pandemic yet and we’re very likely going to hit a third wave,” Green said. “Certain states are opening up much more than California. The UK variant, the South African variant and the Brazilian variant will become worldwide pretty soon, if they’re not already.”

Green said he expects more transmission as a result of Easter holiday and spring break, when families may likely be gathering and “opening their bubbles too wide.” He said the current vaccination effort is still in its early stages, and communities are nowhere near herd immunity, when the spread of the virus is halted because enough people have been fully vaccinated or acquired immunity through infection.

Green said COVID-19 is likely to follow the cyclical pattern of the 1918 flu pandemic, which saw a third wave that was not quite as severe as the second and was more like the first. The first wave of coronavirus occurred last summer, while the second hit hard during the winter months of December and January, the most infectious and deadly period in the past year

Dr. John Swartzberg, a UC Berkeley infectious disease expert, said he expects the next wave to occur within the next six weeks. The number of COVID-19 cases in the Bay Area continues to decline, though not at the “precipitous“ decrease that was seen after cases peaked in the winter, he said.

The same leveling off of cases can be seen across the state and nation, where transmission rates have declined to about 53,000 new cases a day. But some 18 states are actually seeing a rise in the number of cases, he said.

After each wave, Americans have become more diligent about pandemic precautions such as wearing masks and social distancing and not getting together in crowds, Swartzberg said. But at the same time, communities often “open up too quickly” after each surge, he said.

On the positive side of the scale, Swartzberg said, are the usual pandemic precautions, vaccination efforts and the end of winter months. The negative side of the balance, he said, includes significant vaccine hesitancy, an inefficient vaccine rollout and supply shortages. Studies also show a growing number of people are traveling more and not wearing masks.

A number of states, led by Texas, are lifting mask mandates, moves that infectious disease experts say are premature, especially with more transmissible and potentially more deadly virus variants on the loose.

“States are opening up too quickly in my opinion, including counties in California, including Bay Area counties,” Swartzberg said. “We should be dragging our feet more.”

Dr. Chad Krilich, chief medical officer at Providence St. Joseph Health, which runs Santa Rosa Memorial, Petaluma Valley and Healdsburg hospitals, said a “worst-case scenario” projection by the University of Washington shows an increase in cases expected by mid-April.

Sonoma County and other communities are likely at their lowest point in terms of cases and hospitalizations. At Memorial and Petaluma Valley, the average number of COVID-19 patients has declined dramatically since the winter surge, he said.

In January, the average number of coronavirus patients was 40 at Memorial and eight at Petaluma Valley. In February it was 17 at Memorial and four at Petaluma Valley. This month, Memorial has seen six COVID-19 patients, while Petaluma has seen three.

“That’s really good news“ he said. ”At the same, we also know that with this pandemic we’ve seen in multiple parts of the world a pattern where things quiet down, things open up and then we see more cases, we see more hospitalizations and we see more deaths.“

Green, the Sutter Health infectious disease specialist, said he’s concerned about the impact COVID-19 variants will have on the next surge. Variants like the U.K. strain are more transmissible and potentially more lethal.

“I’ve actually seen a shift in the pandemic. I’ve actually seen people of younger age, in the 40- and 50-year-old range come into the ICU and get intubated and some of them not survive,” Green said. “So, we’re actually seeing a more severe viral infection in younger people, as well.”

But he said there are clearly fewer cases because communities are having success “flattening the curve” with public health measures and precautions.

“So this means that people are doing the right thing,” Green said. “I think public health measures in Sonoma County are working, despite the variants being here already. But for the few that do get infected, it’s a much more difficult course to survive and get through.”

Dr. Sundari Mase, the county’s health officer, said she hopes local residents will continue to practice the pandemic precautions that have successfully brought down case rates and taken the county out of the most restrictive tier of the state’s reopening plan.

Mase said it’s hard to say if there will be another severe surge in coronavirus cases.

“I certainly wouldn’t be surprised if there was a third surge or third wave of infections,” she said. “We just have to see what direction we’re going. It will depend on how well people comply (with health measures) now that we’re opening up — it’s not a pass to do anything you want. You still have to be responsible.”

You can reach Staff Writer Martin Espinoza at 707-521-5213 or martin.espinoza@pressdemocrat.com. On Twitter @pressreno.