Monday storm updates: When might the Russian River crest next? Here’s what the experts say

Another round of rain hit Sonoma County Monday.

Reporters Colin Atagi (@colin_atagi) and Andrew Graham (@andrewgraham88) are covering the happenings of the day. Send storm-related tips to them at colin.atagi@pressdemocrat.com and andrew.graham@pressdemocrat.com. For the latest photos and video, follow photojournalists Beth Schlanker and Christopher Chung on Twitter @BethSchlanker and @cchungphoto.

Here is the latest on the storm:

9:10 p.m.: When might the Russian River crest next? Here’s what the experts say

Anyone walking along the Russian River near Guerneville shortly after midnight early Tuesday might see the peak of the river’s water levels following this latest bout of torrential downpours.

At 8:45 p.m. Monday, the California Nevada River Forecast Center reported the river would reach its flood stage of 32 feet at 1 a.m. Tuesday. The agency anticipates the waters will recede again about 3 hours later, around 4 a.m.

The agency said its next forecast is expected at 3 a.m. Tuesday.

But as of Monday night, forecasters expect the Russian River to reach 29.7 feet by about 10 p.m., nearly 3 feet below flood stage.

This is a far cry from what had been predicted last week as Sonoma County entered its latest series of rainstorms, which have dumped upwards of 5 inches of rain across the region.

Intermittent storms, brought about by multiple atmospheric rivers, have been happening across the Bay Area since Dec. 26.

As recently as Friday, Guerneville residents had been preparing for the river to crest at 39 feet, a foot below major flood stage, by Monday or Tuesday.

In anticipation, Sonoma County issued an evacuation warning for areas along the Russian River, but by Monday the Sonoma County Sheriff’s Office backed away from that earlier warning and announced that mandatory evacuations wouldn’t be necessary.

Flooding did occur in parts of Guerneville, but officials said it has been minor.

7:05 p.m.: Conditions begin to calm in Guerneville as weather eases up on region

At 7 p.m., towns along the lower Russian River were largely quiet.

The rain had stopped and the winds had calmed. There was a chill in the air and mist had formed over the swollen river.

With the power restored to Guerneville’s downtown, the bars and restaurants did a slow Monday night trade.

Areas where forecasters had predicted flooding — principally Mill Street in Guerneville and Old Bohemian Highway in Monte Rio, have seen some flooding.

Elsewhere in the west county, first responder crews fielded normal medical calls and otherwise enjoyed the lull before predicted winds ramped up around 10 p.m.

Occidental Volunteer Fire Department Chief Ron Lunardi said his department had responded to three calls for fallen trees earlier in the day but for now, most of his crew was home.

He anticipates more felled trees as the winds increase and test roots that are sitting in highly saturated soil.

“It won’t take much to take these trees down,” Lunardi said.

6:50 p.m.: Reminder that some school districts are closed on Tuesday

As a reminder, several west Sonoma County school districts will be closed Tuesday due to the ongoing storms.

On Monday, the Sonoma County Office of Education reiterated from a previous announcement that the following districts — and one school — would be closed:

• Fort Ross Elementary School District;
• Guerneville School District;
• Horicon School District;
• Kashia School District;
• Monte Rio Union School District;
• Montgomery Elementary School.

The Office of Education emphasized there are 40 school districts in Sonoma County and others are operating as normal unless included in the above list.

The decision to close is made by each school district.

6:40 p.m. ‘Flood outlook much better than expected,’ Sheriff’s official says

Evacuation warnings continue but the outlook for flooding is “much better than expected,” according to an official with the Sonoma County Sheriff’s Office.

The Russian River was at about 28 feet as of 5 p.m. Monday and expected to crest at flood stage, 32 feet, by 1 a.m. Tuesday, Deputy Rob Dillion said.

“Hopefully we’ll start to see the river recede tomorrow at about 6 a.m.,” he said in a Facebook video.

Road closures may continue throughout the day and area residents are discouraged from attempting to go through flooded streets, the deputy said.

5:10 p.m.: 2 Santa Rosa parks close due to flooding

The Santa Rosa Fire Department continues to advise area residents of flooding.

In a tweet Monday afternoon, it announced Prince Memorial Greenway trail, near First Street and Santa Rosa Avenue, has been closed due to flooding.

Also closed is Galvin Community Park in Bennett Valley.

The closures will remain in effect until 4 p.m. Tuesday.

4:45 p.m.: Shuttle service offered to west county residents who want to go to evacuation center

Sonoma County Transit is running a special service for west county residents who may need to evacuate due to Russian River flooding caused by the recent storms.

Shuttles will be available Tuesday along lower Russian River areas and will transport riders to the evacuation shelter at the Sonoma County Fairgrounds in Santa Rosa, according to the county.

Below are their stops and schedules:

• Monte Rio: Main Street and Moscow Road, departing at 9 a.m., noon and 3 p.m.;
• Guerneville: Safeway, departing at 9 a.m., 9:20 a.m., noon, 12:20 p.m., 3 p.m. and 3:20 p.m.;
• Occidental: Town community center, departing at 9 a.m., noon and 3 p.m.;
• Forestville: El Molino High School, departing at 9:30 a.m., 12:45 p.m. and 3:45 p.m.

Weather and flood conditions will determine if these routes run past Tuesday, according to the county.

3:50 p.m.: Russian River flood projections downgraded again

Flooding projections continue to ease for Russian River near Guerneville.

Latest data from the California Nevada River Forecast Center show the river is on tap to crest at 32 feet by Tuesday. That’s significantly lower than the nearly 39 feet that had been anticipated since last week.

The height has gradually lowered throughout Monday. Just hours earlier, officials said water levels would peak at 33 feet.

Flood stage begins at 32 feet, but the Sonoma County Fire District had earlier described water at 33 feet as “nuisance flooding.”

Additional rainfall is expected into Tuesday morning. Wet conditions are expected to last through the week, but forecasters say it won’t be as heavy as what occurred over the past several days.

According to the National Weather Service, 5.23 inches of rain were recorded at Charles M. Schulz-Sonoma County Airport Wednesday through Sunday.

Additional rain was recorded Sunday night into Monday morning but data wasn’t yet available.

3:20 p.m.: Storms were responsible for 530 incidents since last week

Fallen trees, downed power lines and traffic collisions were the three most common weather-related incidents to take place since heavy storms developed in Sonoma County last week.

Since Jan. 3, Redcom dispatchers have received calls for 530 events across Sonoma County, before the first drenching took place Jan. 4 when nearly 2¼ inches of rain was recorded at Charles M. Schulz-Sonoma County Airport.

This was all on top of the usual 100 to 200 incidents reported to Redcom on a daily basis.

“It’s been pretty nuts,” said Jasmine Mitchell, interim operations manager for Redcom.

Data on the 530 incidents covers the period from Jan. 3 to about 2:30 p.m. Monday.

Mitchell said, “There are a ton of trees down. That’s going to be a lot of those calls.”

Among them was the tree that crashed onto a double-wide mobile home outside of Occidental, killing a 2½-year-old boy Wednesday night.

Western Sonoma County and the northern coast area were the hardest-hit regions, although Mitchell added a lot of calls also came from Santa Rosa.

Five dispatchers are usually working per shift but additional staffers were called in each night during the storms.

“We were trying to get as many dispatchers as we could into a room,” Mitchell said

3 p.m.: Floodwaters wreck havoc on Santa Rosa Junior College student’s Forestville dwelling

Grace Barnard, 22, returned to her parent’s Forestville house about 1 p.m. Monday to grab belongings from her flood-damaged room so she could stay at a family friend’s house while it is being repaired.

About 14 hours earlier, Barnard, a Santa Rosa Junior College student and employee at Rio Nido Roadhouse, and her parents had just gotten back to their Forestville house after seeing a movie. That’s when she saw water rushing down the hill from the creek directly toward their property.

She went to the backyard to check on her room and there was already a foot of water outside her door, she said.

She opened the door, and more water started rushing in.

“I had put sandbags out the prior night because of the last storm, and we thought that was as bad as it was gonna get,” Barnard said. “But it most definitely was not.”

Barnard and her father started throwing things on top of her bed to save as many of her possessions as they could, but the water kept rising another foot.

After another 10 minutes, the water had already drained almost as fast as it had come, and she was left with “the destruction of my room.”

“It just happened so fast,” she said. Barnard lost all her furniture, shoes and a framed family photo that she had recently gotten as a gift from her mom, which she saw floating on top of the water — “an upsetting image,” she said.

Jennifer Wertz, fund manager for the Russian River Alliance, a nonprofit which helps and advocates for the Russian River community, has been helping Barnard fundraise and replace her items, and she encouraged Barnard to set up a GoFundMe, which had raised $540 Monday afternoon.

“It was awful, just watching it pool in my room,” Barnard said. “But at the end of the day I’m so thankful no one was hurt and that people (have been) so kind to help me.”

2:30 p.m.: National Weather Service warns of “dangerous winds”

The National Weather Service issued a warning about “dangerous winds” for Sonoma County and much of Northern California.

The wind advisory will take effect at 10 p.m. Monday and last through 4 p.m. Tuesday.

2:25 p.m.: Trione-Annadel State Park still closed due to flooding

Add Trione-Annadel State Park to the list of closures due to flooding.

The Santa Rosa-area park will be closed through Wednesday, according to the Redwood Trails Alliance.

Also closed are Skyline Park in Napa County and Boggs Mountain Demonstration State Forest in Lake County.

2:11 p.m.: Evacuation orders unlikely after flooding concerns ease

Evacuation orders for those living along the lower Russian River appear to be off the table, for now.

At this point, residents along that section of the river are under an evacuation warning: to have their go-bags packed, and be ready to leave.

Sonoma County Sheriff’s Deputy Rob Dillion told the Press Democrat that the latest projections — that the Russian River will crest at just above 33 feet Tuesday morning in Guerneville — mean that the evacuation warning is unlikely to be upgraded to an evacuation order, in the near term.

“Minor flood” level for that section of the river is 32 feet. In February of 2019, the river crested in Guerneville at 45 feet, causing catastrophic damage. With the current forecast of the water “just bumping into that mild to moderate flooding,” said Dillion, “we’re going to see water on roads, water in certain areas, but nothing major. So far we haven’t hit that point, requiring mandatory evacuations.”

In the meantime, Sheriff’s office is providing plenty of information to residents of flood-prone zones on social media.

1 p.m.: Pacific Gas and Electric says about 87,000 customers are without power across the state in “very widespread event”

About 87,000 customers are without power across 42 California counties, Pacific Gas and Electric officials said during a press conference Monday.

As of 11:30 a.m., about 5,400 customers were without power in Sonoma County, PG&E spokesperson Megan McFarland said.

“This is a very widespread event,” Adam Wright, the utility’s chief operating officer and executive vice president, said.

Wright said as PG&E responds to the storm, the safety of the workers and communities will be “Paramount.”

“We will continue to put safety first,” he said. “We will not take any shortcuts when working to restore service.”

This means that it may take longer to restore power in certain areas, especially where hazards from the storm, such as downed trees or mudslides, affect access, Wright said.

“We will work as quickly as safety allows,” he said.

These statements come one day after an Elk Grove man contracted by PG&E to assist with power restoration efforts was killed in a Mendocino County crash. He had been driving to Point Arenas to help with vegetation management and had been unable to complete a turn on Mountain View Road.

CHP is still investigating the crash, though authorities said it is possible that weather was a factor.

Wright said PG&E typically assesses the power outage before providing an estimated time of restoration. However, with the high volume of outages, PG&E will use data collected over the past 30 years to help them calculate some approximate repair times.

This will allow the company to provide estimated times within 24 hours for all power outages, Wright said.

“While these restoration estimates will be data-informed and based on decades of experience, the most accurate restoration times still come from putting eyes on the situation,’” he said.

Prior to the storms, PG&E set up response crews in areas expected to be hit hardest by the wet weather and pre-staged temporary power generators.

The large-scale temporary generators are currently providing power to about 6,300 PG&E customers in Humboldt and Sonoma counties, Wright said.

11:30 a.m.: Sonoma County issues public health advisory in response to storm hazards

Sonoma County Health Officer Dr. Sundari Mase has issued a public health advisory in anticipation of potential high-water hazards resulting from days of stormy weather.

Some hazards that could result from rising creek and river levels include flooding of residential areas and being exposed to contaminated floodwater, according to a Sunday news release from the county.

Sonoma County residents should avoid going into floodwaters because they can contain hazardous debris such as downed power lines, human waste, medical waste, wild or stray animals, and objects such as lumber and vehicles, the county said.

Additionally, exposure to contaminated floodwaters can cause skin rashes, gastrointestinal illnesses and tetanus, according to the release.

If a resident comes in contact with flood water, they should wash the exposed areas with soap and clean water as soon as possible. If soap and water aren’t available, they should use alcohol-based wipes or sanitizer.

Any food not a waterproof container that touches flood water should be thrown out, according to the release.

11:21 a.m.: Russian River expected to crest Tuesday

The Russian River is expected to crest in Guerneville at just above 33 feet early Tuesday morning, bringing “nuisance flooding” to the lower Russian River community, said Karen Hancock, a spokesperson for the Sonoma County Fire District.

Hancock said fire district staff continue to monitor river levels and weather forecasts; more rain is expected late Monday and into Tuesday morning, though not as much as the system that began Sunday evening.

Hancock said her biggest concern is the formation of convection cell thunderstorms that have the potential to drop a large amount of rain in a short period of time. Still, with Russian River just above flood stage in Guerneville, roadway flooding won’t be as severe as it was in 2019.

“Guerneville won’t become an island at 32 feet,” Hancock said.

The Sonoma County Fire District and other emergency responders urged local residents to be prepared and to avoid driving through flooded roadways. Hancock said four motorists were rescued from a flooded area near Shiloh Road and the northbound Highway 101 offramp.

That area, she said, has a small nearby stream that can overflow during flood season. “We have a lot of those areas in the county where there’s a lot of streams,” she said. ‘It’s not just the river we’re concerned with.”

Add to that another two stranded motorists that had to be rescued from Slusser and River roads.

“Be prepared, we’ve got more rain coming and please, please don’t drive through flooded roadways,” Hancock said. “It puts us all at risk.”

11 a.m.: Next storm expected Tuesday as Russian River rises

North Bay skies are clearing, and they should stay that way for the rest of the day Monday, according to the National Weather Service, giving small streams some time to subside and road crews a window to catch up to a mess of problems across the region.

The Russian River, though, is expected to continue to rise through Tuesday morning, reaching up to 33 feet in Guerneville — 1 foot above its 32-foot stage — a level the Sonoma County Fire District called “nuisance flooding” along the disaster-seasoned lower river.

The storm front that bought heavy winds and significant rain Sunday night through Monday morning is now moving south, into the southern Bay Area, said National Weather Service meteorologist Jeff Lorber.

“Winds are settling down this afternoon, bring some respite until late tonight,” Lorber said. “After midnight, another system that’s not quite as strong will move into the area. We will see some increasing gusting wind again but not as strong as we saw this morning.”

Lorber said the next storm system will bring moderate to heavy rain until Tuesday morning, with lighter showers expected Tuesday afternoon. He said unstable air mass could bring isolated thunderstorms Tuesday, and another inch to half inch of rain in low areas and 1-2 inches of rain in the North Bay mountains.

The rest of the week and into the weekend will remain wet, he said, though these systems won’t bring as much rain as have recent atmospheric rivers. That should gradually bring local rivers and streams to safer levels, until the next significant rainstorm arrives, he said.

10:30 a.m.: Power outages continue across Sonoma County

As of 9 a.m., more than 16,000 Pacific Gas and Electric Co. customers across the nine-county Bay Area are without power, according to utility spokesperson Megan McFarland.

More than 3,600 customers are currently without power in Sonoma County.

About 1,800 of these customer are in the northwest portion of the county, near Sea Ranch and Stewarts Point. Portions of this area have been without power since Jan. 4.

McFarland said these power outages are due to the “extreme damage” that has been caused by the recent storms in the North Bay.

Power is expected to be restored to these northwest regions by about 10 p.m. Tuesday, according to the company’s outage center.

The restoration time has been delayed because crews have had to stop work due to hazardous wind conditions. Workers have also experienced access issues because of flooding, landslides and fallen trees, McFarland said.

Also, equipment and electric lines in mountainous areas need to be inspected by someone who goes there on foot or in a vehicle because weather conditions have prevented aerial patrol.

“We are working safely and as quickly as possible to assess the damage and assign crews to repair and restore power,” McFarland said in an email, adding that about 4,100 PG&E, contract and mutual aid workers are a part of the company’s storm response.

9:15 a.m.: Portion of Highway 1 near Valley Ford closed due to flooding

Highway 1 from Valley Ford Road to Slaughterhouse Road, near Valley Ford, is closed due to flooding, according to the CalTrans QuickMap.

Further north near Bodega Bay, a portion of Highway 1 from Eastshore Road to Bay Flat Road is down to one lane of traffic due to “emergency work.” The work is scheduled to end at 4:30 p.m.

9 a.m.: More road closures in Petaluma

Due to flooding, the number of roads closed in Petaluma has increased, according to a news release from the Petaluma Police Department.

Here are the roads currently closed in the city:

• Petaluma Blvd North between Corona Road and Highway 101
• Old Redwood Hwy between North McDowell and Highway 101
• The intersection of Petaluma North and Industrial Drive/Stony Point Road
• Stony Point Road between Petaluma Blvd North and Pepper Road
• Rainsville Road between Stony Road and Liberty Road
• Lakeville Highway between Stage Gulch Road and Frates Road
• Westbound Lakeville in the 100 block, near Madison Street
• Northbound North McDowell at Redwood Way

While the rain itself has subsided, the city will continue to experience runoff from the Petaluma River watershed for the next few hours, according to the release.

“Avoid flooded roads and use a detour,” police said in an alert. “The rain is currently subsiding, but runoff from the Petaluma River watershed will continue for the next few hours.”

Authorities also issued a flood advisory for the area around Leisure Lake Mobile Home Park in the 300 block of Stony Point Road. “Residents of the area should consider evacuating due to road closures,” police stated. “Please note: the only way out is southbound on Stony Point Road from Denman.”

The Petaluma Community Center at Lucchesi Park, 320 N McDowell Blvd., is open as a shelter for any who need it. Those requiring immediate assistance are urged to call 707-762-2727 or 911.

8:30 a.m.: Petaluma Fire Department makes multiple weather-related rescues

The rainfall brought by the atmospheric river is already triggering localized flooding in Petaluma, according to firefighters.

The Petaluma Fire Department has made at least six weather-related rescues Monday morning.

Most of them have been of people who drove their cars into standing water on roads such as Redwood Way and North McDowell Boulevard, said Petaluma Fire Captain Kevin Burris.

There was also one rescue of a homeless person who was surrounded by floodwaters on Corona Road where it crosses over the Petaluma River.

None of the rescues have resulted in injuries.

Firefighters have made all of the rescues on foot, without the use of the swift water rescue boat, Burris said.

Burris said this localized flooding is normal that the city had yet to see any major flooding leading into homes.

“The waters go up and down fairly quickly here,” he said. “I would imagine we should be doing better by this afternoon.”

8:20 a.m.: Crews rescue multiple stranded motorists near Windsor

Local authorities rescued six motorists from standing water at two locations in and near Windsor Monday.

The two rescues were reported about 7:30 a.m., said Karen Hancock, a spokesperson for Sonoma County Fire.

Rescue crews from the Sonoma County Sheriff’s Department and Sonoma County Fire District helped two stranded drivers in two vehicles on flooded Slusser Road at River Road near Windsor.

Sonoma County Fire personnel also rescued four people from four vehicles at the offramp to Highway 101 near Shiloh Road.

The drivers had driven past a road closure sign, Hancock said.

No one was injured.

Hancock encouraged drivers to “turn around, don’t drown” when faced with road closures or standing water.

“We just want them to be safe and our rescue teams to be safe,” she said over text.

7:50 a.m.: Sonoma County Office of Education announces closure of special education programs

The following special education programs, which are hosted at or facilitated by the Cotati-Rohnert Park Unified School District are also closed due to weather concerns:

• SCOE Transition Program
• SCOE El Colegio Preschool
• SCOE at Lawrence Jones Middle School
• SCOE at Rancho Cotate High School
• SCOE at University Prep at La Fiesta

7:20 a.m.: Sonoma County Office of Education announces more school closures

The following school district will be closed due to fallen trees, lack of electricity, flooding or other storm-related concerns:

• Cotati-Rohnert Park Unified School District

6:34 a.m.: National Weather Service issues flood advisory for much of the North Bay

A flood advisory is in effect until 8:45 a.m. for much of the North Bay, including Santa Rosa, Petaluma and Cloverdale, according to the National Weather Service.

6:14 a.m.: Rohnert Park roads closed due to flooding

Rohnert Park Expressway at Rancho Verde is closed and Martin/Redwood is closed, according to the Rohnert Park Department of Public Safety. Authorities urge residents to call Dispatch at 707-584-2600 if they see an area that has flooding and there are no signs up. They also remind drivers to not drive through bodies of water.

5:39 a.m.: Petaluma roads closed due to flooding

Lakeville Highway between Frates Road and Stage Gulch, Stony Point Road, between Petaluma Blvd North and Pepper Road and Rainsville Road between Liberty Road and Stony Point Road are closed due to flooding, according to the Petaluma Police Department. Authorities advise motorist to drive slowly. Watch out for standing water in the roadway and don’t drive through flooded roadways.

9 p.m. Sunday: “Very impactful” storm system expected through Tuesday

A graphic shared on Twitter by the National Weather Service shows that Santa Rosa could get as much as 3 inches of rain through Tuesday. Cloverdale could see as much as 4 inches of rain.

7 p.m. Sunday: Sonoma County Office of Education announces school closures

The following school districts will be closed due to fallen trees, lack of electricity, flooding or other storm-related concerns:

• Fort Ross Elementary School District (also plans to close Tuesday)
• Guerneville School District
• Horicon School District (also plans to close Tuesday)
• Kashia School District (also plans to close Tuesday)
• Montgomery Elementary (also plans to close Tuesday)