Sonoma County stuck in the orange tier until state reopens in mid-June

Sonoma County has run out of time to advance into the state’s most permissive yellow tier for COVID-19 restrictions, meaning it will remain in the more prohibitive orange tier until the state does away with the framework entirely on June 15.

That’s the date when state officials are expected to allow counties to more fully reopen their economies.

But with local transmission of COVID-19 continuing at a moderate level, Sonoma County’s status won’t change before that shift.

Sonoma County Health Officer Dr. Sundari Mase said she’s keeping an eye on a slight, recent increase in local COVID-19 cases that stems from one group: young adult residents who have not yet been vaccinated.

“The message is get vaccinated because all of these cases are occurring in that 18-to-34-year-old age group, among unvaccinated people,” she said. “What does that tell us? It tells us that if you’re unvaccinated, you’re not protected, you’re still at risk for COVID and potential complications related to COVID.”

Despite the county’s orange tier status, Mase said the local pandemic outlook is positive as the state prepares to fully reopen. The local vaccine rollout, with nearly 60% of the county’s population fully vaccinated and another 12% partially inoculated, has greatly reduced virus transmission in the county.

The current adjusted transmission rate in Sonoma County is 2.8 new daily cases per 100,000 people, according to the state health department’s latest county assessments released Tuesday afternoon.

The overall virus positivity rate, the share of COVID-19 tests that turn up positive, is 1.4%, while the share of positive tests in the county’s poorest communities is 1.7%.

To advance to the yellow tier, counties need to see their transmission rates drop below 2 new daily cases per 100,000 residents. Also, a county’s overall positivity rate needs to fall under 2% and the positivity in disadvantaged communities must drop below 2.2%.

Counties must meet that tier’s requirements for two consecutive weeks to advance to a less restrictive tier. Falling short of yellow tier requirements this week means Sonoma County will remain in the orange tier, classified as moderate virus transmission, through mid-June.

After June 15, California health officials are expected to fully reopen the state economy as long as vaccine goals are met and COVID-19 hospitalizations remain low.

Mase said the state’s plans to fully reopen businesses and other activities in two weeks should give unvaccinated residents even more reason to get inoculated. “If you’re not vaccinated, and there’s no reason why you shouldn’t get vaccinated, go get the vaccine,” she said. “And then you can pretty much stop worrying so much.”

Dr. John Swartzberg, a UC Berkeley infectious disease expert, said abandoning the state’s four-tier reopening plan for a different way of addressing the pandemic “is entirely appropriate.”

Swartzberg said the framework was established last fall at a time when public health officials only had intervention strategies like social distancing, masking and avoiding gatherings to address the public health crisis. The vaccine changed everything, he said.

“These vaccines have far exceeded our expectations,“ he said. ”So combining these (non-pharmaceutical interventions) with the vaccines has led to the position we’re in right now, which is an outstanding place to be.“

But in a state of 40 million people spread across 58 counties, uniformly lifting all restrictions will lead likely lead to different results, he said. “There will be some areas where controls weren’t necessary, haven’t been necessary for weeks. And there will be some areas where controls really remain necessary,” he said.

But Swartzberg said the state is not likely to experience the same large surges it did last summer or winter, though he did express concern about summer holiday gatherings and the likelihood that people will let down their guard as the state fully reopens.

On Tuesday, Marin County advanced to the yellow tier, joining three other Bay Area counties currently in the least restrictive stage of the state’s plan: San Francisco, San Mateo, Santa Clara. Sonoma, Napa, Solano, Contra Costa, Alameda counties are all in the orange tier.

Mendocino County, which is in the yellow tier, is currently experiencing a surge in cases that has lead to a transmission rate of 6 new daily cases per 100,000 residents, double that of Sonoma County.

You can reach Staff Writer Martin Espinoza at 707-521-5213 or martin.espinoza@pressdemocrat.com. On Twitter @pressreno.